Aurelia Metals Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| AMI Stock | 0.18 0.01 5.88% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Aurelia Metals on the next trading day is expected to be 0.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.37. Aurelia Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Aurelia |
Aurelia Metals Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Aurelia Metals on the next trading day is expected to be 0.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.000054, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.37.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aurelia Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aurelia Metals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Aurelia Metals Stock Forecast Pattern
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Aurelia Metals Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Aurelia Metals' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Aurelia Metals' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0 and 5.10, respectively. We have considered Aurelia Metals' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aurelia Metals stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aurelia Metals stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.1195 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.006 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0344 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.3739 |
Predictive Modules for Aurelia Metals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aurelia Metals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Aurelia Metals
For every potential investor in Aurelia, whether a beginner or expert, Aurelia Metals' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Aurelia Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Aurelia. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Aurelia Metals' price trends.Aurelia Metals Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Aurelia Metals stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Aurelia Metals could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aurelia Metals by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Aurelia Metals Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Aurelia Metals' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Aurelia Metals' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Aurelia Metals Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Aurelia Metals stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Aurelia Metals shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Aurelia Metals stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Aurelia Metals entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 71909.61 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 1.0 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.06 | |||
| Day Median Price | 0.18 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 0.18 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.01 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.01 |
Aurelia Metals Risk Indicators
The analysis of Aurelia Metals' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aurelia Metals' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aurelia stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.39 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.91 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.9 | |||
| Variance | 23.98 | |||
| Downside Variance | 43.34 | |||
| Semi Variance | 15.32 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (6.62) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Additional Tools for Aurelia Stock Analysis
When running Aurelia Metals' price analysis, check to measure Aurelia Metals' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Aurelia Metals is operating at the current time. Most of Aurelia Metals' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Aurelia Metals' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Aurelia Metals' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Aurelia Metals to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.