Amerant Bancorp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 21.06
| AMTB Stock | USD 25.05 0.50 1.96% |
Amerant |
Amerant Bancorp Target Price Odds to finish below 21.06
The tendency of Amerant Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 21.06 or more in 90 days |
| 25.05 | 90 days | 21.06 | about 33.91 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Amerant Bancorp to drop to $ 21.06 or more in 90 days from now is about 33.91 (This Amerant Bancorp probability density function shows the probability of Amerant Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Amerant Bancorp price to stay between $ 21.06 and its current price of $25.05 at the end of the 90-day period is about 64.33 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.18 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Amerant Bancorp will likely underperform. Additionally Amerant Bancorp has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Amerant Bancorp Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Amerant Bancorp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Amerant Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Amerant Bancorp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Amerant Bancorp Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Amerant Bancorp is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Amerant Bancorp's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Amerant Bancorp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Amerant Bancorp within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.01 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.18 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.56 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.05 |
Amerant Bancorp Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Amerant Bancorp for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Amerant Bancorp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Amerant Bancorp has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 60.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Foundry Partners LLC Has 3.38 Million Holdings in Amerant Bancorp Inc. - MarketBeat |
Amerant Bancorp Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Amerant Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Amerant Bancorp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Amerant Bancorp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 33.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 53.3 M |
Amerant Bancorp Technical Analysis
Amerant Bancorp's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Amerant Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Amerant Bancorp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Amerant Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Amerant Bancorp Predictive Forecast Models
Amerant Bancorp's time-series forecasting models is one of many Amerant Bancorp's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Amerant Bancorp's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Amerant Bancorp
Checking the ongoing alerts about Amerant Bancorp for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Amerant Bancorp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Amerant Bancorp has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 60.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Foundry Partners LLC Has 3.38 Million Holdings in Amerant Bancorp Inc. - MarketBeat |
Check out Amerant Bancorp Backtesting, Amerant Bancorp Valuation, Amerant Bancorp Correlation, Amerant Bancorp Hype Analysis, Amerant Bancorp Volatility, Amerant Bancorp History as well as Amerant Bancorp Performance. For information on how to trade Amerant Stock refer to our How to Trade Amerant Stock guide.You can also try the Technical Analysis module to check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Amerant Bancorp. If investors know Amerant will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Amerant Bancorp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.32) | Dividend Share 0.36 | Earnings Share (1.48) | Revenue Per Share 7.627 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.83) |
The market value of Amerant Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Amerant that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Amerant Bancorp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Amerant Bancorp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Amerant Bancorp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Amerant Bancorp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Amerant Bancorp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Amerant Bancorp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Amerant Bancorp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.