Arcadis NV (Netherlands) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 63.09
| ARCAD Stock | EUR 62.20 0.45 0.73% |
Arcadis |
Arcadis NV Target Price Odds to finish below 63.09
The tendency of Arcadis Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under € 63.09 after 90 days |
| 62.20 | 90 days | 63.09 | about 19.38 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Arcadis NV to stay under € 63.09 after 90 days from now is about 19.38 (This Arcadis NV probability density function shows the probability of Arcadis Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Arcadis NV price to stay between its current price of € 62.20 and € 63.09 at the end of the 90-day period is about 13.71 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Arcadis NV has a beta of 0.57. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Arcadis NV average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Arcadis NV will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Arcadis NV has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Arcadis NV Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Arcadis NV
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Arcadis NV. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Arcadis NV's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Arcadis NV Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Arcadis NV is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Arcadis NV's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Arcadis NV, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Arcadis NV within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.12 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.57 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.27 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.14 |
Arcadis NV Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Arcadis NV for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Arcadis NV can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Arcadis NV generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Arcadis NV has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| About 23.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Arcadis NV Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Arcadis Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Arcadis NV's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Arcadis NV's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 89 M |
Arcadis NV Technical Analysis
Arcadis NV's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Arcadis Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Arcadis NV. In general, you should focus on analyzing Arcadis Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Arcadis NV Predictive Forecast Models
Arcadis NV's time-series forecasting models is one of many Arcadis NV's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Arcadis NV's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Arcadis NV
Checking the ongoing alerts about Arcadis NV for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Arcadis NV help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Arcadis NV generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Arcadis NV has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| About 23.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Arcadis Stock
Arcadis NV financial ratios help investors to determine whether Arcadis Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Arcadis with respect to the benefits of owning Arcadis NV security.