Ares Capital Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 23.08
| ARCC Stock | USD 21.78 0.01 0.05% |
Ares |
Ares Capital Target Price Odds to finish over 23.08
The tendency of Ares Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 23.08 or more in 90 days |
| 21.78 | 90 days | 23.08 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Ares Capital to move over $ 23.08 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Ares Capital probability density function shows the probability of Ares Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Ares Capital price to stay between its current price of $ 21.78 and $ 23.08 at the end of the 90-day period is about 6.44 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Ares Capital has a beta of 0.54. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Ares Capital average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Ares Capital will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Ares Capital has an alpha of 0.0533, implying that it can generate a 0.0533 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Ares Capital Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Ares Capital
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ares Capital. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ares Capital's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ares Capital Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Ares Capital is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Ares Capital's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Ares Capital, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Ares Capital within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.05 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.54 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.54 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.02 |
Ares Capital Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Ares Capital for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Ares Capital can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Ares Capital currently holds 11.94 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 1.27, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Ares Capital has a current ratio of 0.93, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Ares Capital's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| Ares Capital has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| On 30th of September 2024 Ares Capital paid $ 0.48 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Ares Capital Co. Stock Position Raised by Stonebridge Financial Planning Group LLC |
Ares Capital Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Ares Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Ares Capital's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ares Capital's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 575 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 535 M |
Ares Capital Technical Analysis
Ares Capital's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Ares Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Ares Capital. In general, you should focus on analyzing Ares Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Ares Capital Predictive Forecast Models
Ares Capital's time-series forecasting models is one of many Ares Capital's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Ares Capital's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Ares Capital
Checking the ongoing alerts about Ares Capital for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Ares Capital help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Ares Capital currently holds 11.94 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 1.27, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Ares Capital has a current ratio of 0.93, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Ares Capital's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| Ares Capital has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| On 30th of September 2024 Ares Capital paid $ 0.48 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Ares Capital Co. Stock Position Raised by Stonebridge Financial Planning Group LLC |
Check out Ares Capital Backtesting, Ares Capital Valuation, Ares Capital Correlation, Ares Capital Hype Analysis, Ares Capital Volatility, Ares Capital History as well as Ares Capital Performance. For information on how to trade Ares Stock refer to our How to Trade Ares Stock guide.You can also try the Odds Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.
Is Asset Management & Custody Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ares Capital. If investors know Ares will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ares Capital listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.28) | Dividend Share 1.92 | Earnings Share 2.6 | Revenue Per Share 4.868 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.183 |
The market value of Ares Capital is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ares that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ares Capital's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ares Capital's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ares Capital's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ares Capital's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ares Capital's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ares Capital is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ares Capital's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.