Ares Capital Stock Forward View
| ARCC Stock | USD 19.89 0.27 1.34% |
Ares Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Ares Capital stock prices and determine the direction of Ares Capital's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Ares Capital's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Ares Capital's share price is approaching 44. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Ares Capital, making its price go up or down. Momentum 44
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.08) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.5034 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.991 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.9448 | Wall Street Target Price 22.6923 |
Using Ares Capital hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ares Capital from the perspective of Ares Capital response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Ares Capital using Ares Capital's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Ares using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Ares Capital's stock price.
Ares Capital Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Ares Capital's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Ares. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Ares Capital stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 21.1909 | Short Percent 0.0251 | Short Ratio 3.56 | Shares Short Prior Month 17.4 M | 50 Day MA 20.4264 |
Ares Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ares Capital on the next trading day is expected to be 19.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.59.Ares Capital Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Ares Capital's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Ares. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Ares can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Ares Capital. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Ares Capital's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Ares Capital.
Ares Capital Implied Volatility | 0.66 |
Ares Capital's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Ares Capital stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Ares Capital's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Ares Capital stock will not fluctuate a lot when Ares Capital's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ares Capital on the next trading day is expected to be 19.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.59. Ares Capital after-hype prediction price | USD 20.19 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ares Capital to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Ares contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Ares Capital will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0413% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Ares Capital trading at USD 19.89, that is roughly USD 0.008205 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Ares Capital's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Ares Capital options at the current volatility level of 0.66%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Ares Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Ares Capital's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Ares Capital's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Ares Capital stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Ares Capital's open interest, investors have to compare it to Ares Capital's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Ares Capital is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Ares. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Ares Capital Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ares price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ares using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ares charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Ares Capital Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Ares Capital's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2004-09-30 | Previous Quarter 447 M | Current Value 1 B | Quarterly Volatility 231.6 M |
Ares Capital Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ares Capital on the next trading day is expected to be 19.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.59.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ares Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ares Capital's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ares Capital Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Ares Capital | Ares Capital Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Ares Capital Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Ares Capital's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ares Capital's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 18.42 and 20.38, respectively. We have considered Ares Capital's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ares Capital stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ares Capital stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.3343 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2063 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0103 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 12.5871 |
Predictive Modules for Ares Capital
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ares Capital. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ares Capital's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ares Capital After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ares Capital at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ares Capital or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ares Capital, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ares Capital Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ares Capital's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ares Capital's historical news coverage. Ares Capital's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 19.21 and 21.17, respectively. We have considered Ares Capital's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ares Capital is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ares Capital is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ares Capital Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ares Capital is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ares Capital backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ares Capital, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 0.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 12 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 12 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
19.89 | 20.19 | 0.00 |
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Ares Capital Hype Timeline
Ares Capital is presently traded for 19.89. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Ares is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.03%. %. The volatility of related hype on Ares Capital is about 1336.36%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 19.89. About 34.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.01. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Ares Capital last dividend was issued on the 15th of December 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 12 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ares Capital to cross-verify your projections.Ares Capital Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ares Capital's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ares Capital's future price movements. Getting to know how Ares Capital's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ares Capital may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TPVG | Triplepoint Venture Growth | 0.05 | 12 per month | 1.52 | 0.08 | 2.51 | (2.58) | 8.89 | |
| TSLX | Sixth Street Specialty | (0.17) | 7 per month | 1.12 | (0.04) | 2.13 | (2.11) | 5.76 | |
| MAIN | Main Street Capital | 1.71 | 10 per month | 0.94 | 0.12 | 2.60 | (2.07) | 5.67 | |
| CSWC | Capital Southwest | (0.21) | 8 per month | 0.85 | 0.15 | 2.20 | (2.02) | 6.18 | |
| GAIN | Gladstone Investment | 0.15 | 10 per month | 0.68 | (0.05) | 1.23 | (1.23) | 3.47 | |
| PFLT | PennantPark Floating Rate | 0.10 | 11 per month | 0.74 | 0.07 | 1.95 | (1.50) | 4.17 | |
| PSEC | Prospect Capital | (0.03) | 9 per month | 1.71 | 0.03 | 4.67 | (3.18) | 11.08 | |
| HTGC | Hercules Capital | (0.41) | 12 per month | 0.94 | 0.06 | 1.86 | (1.64) | 4.48 | |
| GLAD | Gladstone Capital | (0.07) | 9 per month | 1.11 | 0.04 | 2.09 | (1.72) | 9.50 | |
| HRZN | Horizon Technology Finance | 0.1 | 9 per month | 0.77 | 0.13 | 2.53 | (1.59) | 11.64 | |
| SCM | Stellus Capital Investment | (0.16) | 7 per month | 1.17 | 0.08 | 2.04 | (1.71) | 6.78 | |
| CGBD | Carlyle Secured Lending | (0.18) | 19 per month | 1.29 | (0.03) | 2.23 | (2.09) | 5.52 |
Other Forecasting Options for Ares Capital
For every potential investor in Ares, whether a beginner or expert, Ares Capital's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ares Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ares. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ares Capital's price trends.Ares Capital Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ares Capital stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ares Capital could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ares Capital by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ares Capital Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ares Capital stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ares Capital shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ares Capital stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ares Capital entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 78899.18 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (1.08) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 20.0 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 19.96 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.24) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.27) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 44.05 |
Ares Capital Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ares Capital's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ares Capital's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ares stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7525 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9284 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.01 | |||
| Variance | 1.02 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.05 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.862 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.81) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Ares Capital
The number of cover stories for Ares Capital depends on current market conditions and Ares Capital's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ares Capital is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ares Capital's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Ares Capital Short Properties
Ares Capital's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ares Capital's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ares Capital often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ares Capital's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ares Capital's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 624 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 635 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ares Capital to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Ares Stock refer to our How to Trade Ares Stock guide.You can also try the Share Portfolio module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.
Will Asset Management & Custody Banks sector continue expanding? Could Ares diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ares Capital. If investors know Ares will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Ares Capital data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.08) | Dividend Share 1.92 | Earnings Share 1.99 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.009 |
Understanding Ares Capital requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Ares's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what Ares Capital's is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Ares Capital's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Understanding that Ares Capital's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Ares Capital represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. In contrast, Ares Capital's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.