Athabasca Oil Corp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 3.44
| ATH Stock | CAD 5.19 0.12 2.26% |
Athabasca |
Athabasca Oil Target Price Odds to finish below 3.44
The tendency of Athabasca Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to C$ 3.44 or more in 90 days |
| 5.19 | 90 days | 3.44 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Athabasca Oil to drop to C$ 3.44 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Athabasca Oil Corp probability density function shows the probability of Athabasca Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Athabasca Oil Corp price to stay between C$ 3.44 and its current price of C$5.19 at the end of the 90-day period is about 56.23 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Athabasca Oil Corp has a beta of -0.12. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Athabasca Oil are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Athabasca Oil Corp is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Athabasca Oil Corp has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Athabasca Oil Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Athabasca Oil
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Athabasca Oil Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Athabasca Oil Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Athabasca Oil is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Athabasca Oil's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Athabasca Oil Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Athabasca Oil within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.0028 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.12 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.19 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
Athabasca Oil Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Athabasca Oil for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Athabasca Oil Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Athabasca Oil Corp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Athabasca Oil Corp has accumulated 185.54 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.25, which may suggest the company is not taking enough advantage from borrowing. Athabasca Oil Corp has a current ratio of 0.87, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Athabasca Oil until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Athabasca Oil's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Athabasca Oil Corp sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Athabasca to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Athabasca Oil's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the revenue of 1.2 B. Net Loss for the year was (51.22 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 528.07 M. | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Athabasca Oil Co. Receives C6.25 Average PT from Brokerages - MarketBeat |
Athabasca Oil Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Athabasca Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Athabasca Oil's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Athabasca Oil's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 583.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 343.3 M |
Athabasca Oil Technical Analysis
Athabasca Oil's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Athabasca Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Athabasca Oil Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Athabasca Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Athabasca Oil Predictive Forecast Models
Athabasca Oil's time-series forecasting models is one of many Athabasca Oil's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Athabasca Oil's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Athabasca Oil Corp
Checking the ongoing alerts about Athabasca Oil for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Athabasca Oil Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Athabasca Oil Corp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Athabasca Oil Corp has accumulated 185.54 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.25, which may suggest the company is not taking enough advantage from borrowing. Athabasca Oil Corp has a current ratio of 0.87, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Athabasca Oil until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Athabasca Oil's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Athabasca Oil Corp sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Athabasca to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Athabasca Oil's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the revenue of 1.2 B. Net Loss for the year was (51.22 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 528.07 M. | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Athabasca Oil Co. Receives C6.25 Average PT from Brokerages - MarketBeat |
Other Information on Investing in Athabasca Stock
Athabasca Oil financial ratios help investors to determine whether Athabasca Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Athabasca with respect to the benefits of owning Athabasca Oil security.