Aerovironment Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 204.5
| AVAV Stock | USD 195.91 1.65 0.85% |
AeroVironment |
AeroVironment Target Price Odds to finish over 204.5
The tendency of AeroVironment Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 204.50 or more in 90 days |
| 195.91 | 90 days | 204.50 | about 44.49 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of AeroVironment to move over $ 204.50 or more in 90 days from now is about 44.49 (This AeroVironment probability density function shows the probability of AeroVironment Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of AeroVironment price to stay between its current price of $ 195.91 and $ 204.50 at the end of the 90-day period is about 21.69 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days AeroVironment has a beta of 0.96. This suggests AeroVironment market returns are correlated to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, AeroVironment is expected to follow. Additionally AeroVironment has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. AeroVironment Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for AeroVironment
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AeroVironment. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.AeroVironment Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. AeroVironment is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the AeroVironment's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold AeroVironment, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of AeroVironment within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.0031 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.96 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 15.45 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.0022 |
AeroVironment Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of AeroVironment for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for AeroVironment can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| AeroVironment had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| AeroVironment is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Over 94.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: SHAREHOLDER INVESTIGATION Halper Sadeh LLC Investigates BERY, AVAV, PLL, AMCR on Behalf of ... |
AeroVironment Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of AeroVironment Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential AeroVironment's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AeroVironment's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 27.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 73.3 M |
AeroVironment Technical Analysis
AeroVironment's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. AeroVironment Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of AeroVironment. In general, you should focus on analyzing AeroVironment Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
AeroVironment Predictive Forecast Models
AeroVironment's time-series forecasting models is one of many AeroVironment's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary AeroVironment's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about AeroVironment
Checking the ongoing alerts about AeroVironment for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for AeroVironment help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| AeroVironment had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| AeroVironment is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Over 94.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: SHAREHOLDER INVESTIGATION Halper Sadeh LLC Investigates BERY, AVAV, PLL, AMCR on Behalf of ... |
Additional Tools for AeroVironment Stock Analysis
When running AeroVironment's price analysis, check to measure AeroVironment's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AeroVironment is operating at the current time. Most of AeroVironment's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AeroVironment's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AeroVironment's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AeroVironment to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.