Axsome Therapeutics Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 91.75
| AXSM Stock | USD 98.68 0.49 0.50% |
Axsome |
Axsome Therapeutics Target Price Odds to finish below 91.75
The tendency of Axsome Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 91.75 or more in 90 days |
| 98.68 | 90 days | 91.75 | about 58.61 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Axsome Therapeutics to drop to $ 91.75 or more in 90 days from now is about 58.61 (This Axsome Therapeutics probability density function shows the probability of Axsome Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Axsome Therapeutics price to stay between $ 91.75 and its current price of $98.68 at the end of the 90-day period is about 39.7 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Axsome Therapeutics has a beta of 0.65. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Axsome Therapeutics average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Axsome Therapeutics will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Axsome Therapeutics has an alpha of 0.1296, implying that it can generate a 0.13 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Axsome Therapeutics Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Axsome Therapeutics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Axsome Therapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Axsome Therapeutics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Axsome Therapeutics Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Axsome Therapeutics is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Axsome Therapeutics' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Axsome Therapeutics, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Axsome Therapeutics within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.13 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.65 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.51 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.04 |
Axsome Therapeutics Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Axsome Therapeutics for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Axsome Therapeutics can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 270.6 M. Net Loss for the year was (239.24 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 45.94 M. | |
| Axsome Therapeutics currently holds about 73.39 M in cash with (145.08 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.82. | |
| Axsome Therapeutics has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 81.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Disposition of 33410 shares by Coleman Mark of Axsome Therapeutics at 5.94 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Axsome Therapeutics Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Axsome Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Axsome Therapeutics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Axsome Therapeutics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 45.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 386.2 M |
Axsome Therapeutics Technical Analysis
Axsome Therapeutics' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Axsome Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Axsome Therapeutics. In general, you should focus on analyzing Axsome Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Axsome Therapeutics Predictive Forecast Models
Axsome Therapeutics' time-series forecasting models is one of many Axsome Therapeutics' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Axsome Therapeutics' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Axsome Therapeutics
Checking the ongoing alerts about Axsome Therapeutics for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Axsome Therapeutics help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 270.6 M. Net Loss for the year was (239.24 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 45.94 M. | |
| Axsome Therapeutics currently holds about 73.39 M in cash with (145.08 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.82. | |
| Axsome Therapeutics has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 81.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Disposition of 33410 shares by Coleman Mark of Axsome Therapeutics at 5.94 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Check out Axsome Therapeutics Backtesting, Axsome Therapeutics Valuation, Axsome Therapeutics Correlation, Axsome Therapeutics Hype Analysis, Axsome Therapeutics Volatility, Axsome Therapeutics History as well as Axsome Therapeutics Performance. To learn how to invest in Axsome Stock, please use our How to Invest in Axsome Therapeutics guide.You can also try the Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets.
Is Pharmaceuticals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Axsome Therapeutics. If investors know Axsome will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Axsome Therapeutics listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (6.58) | Revenue Per Share 7.108 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.813 | Return On Assets (0.26) | Return On Equity (1.72) |
The market value of Axsome Therapeutics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Axsome that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Axsome Therapeutics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Axsome Therapeutics' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Axsome Therapeutics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Axsome Therapeutics' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Axsome Therapeutics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Axsome Therapeutics is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Axsome Therapeutics' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.