Excelsior Alimentos (Brazil) Probability of Future Preferred Stock Price Finishing Over 79.61
| BAUH4 Preferred Stock | BRL 78.79 0.00 0.00% |
Excelsior |
Excelsior Alimentos Target Price Odds to finish over 79.61
The tendency of Excelsior Preferred Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over R$ 79.61 or more in 90 days |
| 78.79 | 90 days | 79.61 | about 9.93 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Excelsior Alimentos to move over R$ 79.61 or more in 90 days from now is about 9.93 (This Excelsior Alimentos SA probability density function shows the probability of Excelsior Preferred Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Excelsior Alimentos price to stay between its current price of R$ 78.79 and R$ 79.61 at the end of the 90-day period is about 64.82 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Excelsior Alimentos SA has a beta of -0.0083 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Excelsior Alimentos are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Excelsior Alimentos SA is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Excelsior Alimentos SA has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Excelsior Alimentos Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Excelsior Alimentos
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Excelsior Alimentos. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the preferred stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the preferred stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Excelsior Alimentos Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Excelsior Alimentos is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Excelsior Alimentos' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Excelsior Alimentos SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Excelsior Alimentos within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.0083 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.42 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.55 |
Excelsior Alimentos Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Excelsior Alimentos for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Excelsior Alimentos can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Excelsior Alimentos generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 42.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Excelsior Alimentos Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Excelsior Preferred Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Excelsior Alimentos' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Excelsior Alimentos' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 5.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 10.9 M |
Excelsior Alimentos Technical Analysis
Excelsior Alimentos' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Excelsior Preferred Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Excelsior Alimentos SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Excelsior Preferred Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Excelsior Alimentos Predictive Forecast Models
Excelsior Alimentos' time-series forecasting models is one of many Excelsior Alimentos' preferred stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Excelsior Alimentos' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the preferred stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Excelsior Alimentos
Checking the ongoing alerts about Excelsior Alimentos for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Excelsior Alimentos help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Excelsior Alimentos generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 42.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Additional Tools for Excelsior Preferred Stock Analysis
When running Excelsior Alimentos' price analysis, check to measure Excelsior Alimentos' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Excelsior Alimentos is operating at the current time. Most of Excelsior Alimentos' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Excelsior Alimentos' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Excelsior Alimentos' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Excelsior Alimentos to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.