Bright Horizons Family Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 107.53
| BFAM Stock | USD 111.05 2.69 2.48% |
Bright |
Bright Horizons Target Price Odds to finish below 107.53
The tendency of Bright Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 107.53 or more in 90 days |
| 111.05 | 90 days | 107.53 | about 1.17 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Bright Horizons to drop to $ 107.53 or more in 90 days from now is about 1.17 (This Bright Horizons Family probability density function shows the probability of Bright Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Bright Horizons Family price to stay between $ 107.53 and its current price of $111.05 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.51 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Bright Horizons has a beta of 0.16 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Bright Horizons average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Bright Horizons Family will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Bright Horizons Family has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Bright Horizons Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Bright Horizons
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bright Horizons Family. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Bright Horizons Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Bright Horizons is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Bright Horizons' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Bright Horizons Family, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Bright Horizons within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.32 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.16 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 10.53 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.2 |
Bright Horizons Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Bright Horizons for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Bright Horizons Family can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Bright Horizons generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Bright Horizons Family currently holds 1.86 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 1.57, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Bright Horizons Family has a current ratio of 0.84, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Bright Horizons' use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| Over 99.0% of Bright Horizons shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Elizabeth Boland of 4756 shares of Bright Horizons subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Bright Horizons Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Bright Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Bright Horizons' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Bright Horizons' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 57.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 109.3 M |
Bright Horizons Technical Analysis
Bright Horizons' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Bright Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Bright Horizons Family. In general, you should focus on analyzing Bright Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Bright Horizons Predictive Forecast Models
Bright Horizons' time-series forecasting models is one of many Bright Horizons' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Bright Horizons' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Bright Horizons Family
Checking the ongoing alerts about Bright Horizons for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Bright Horizons Family help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Bright Horizons generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Bright Horizons Family currently holds 1.86 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 1.57, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Bright Horizons Family has a current ratio of 0.84, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Bright Horizons' use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| Over 99.0% of Bright Horizons shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Elizabeth Boland of 4756 shares of Bright Horizons subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Check out Bright Horizons Backtesting, Bright Horizons Valuation, Bright Horizons Correlation, Bright Horizons Hype Analysis, Bright Horizons Volatility, Bright Horizons History as well as Bright Horizons Performance. You can also try the Analyst Advice module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.
Is Diversified Consumer Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Bright Horizons. If investors know Bright will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Bright Horizons listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.362 | Earnings Share 2 | Revenue Per Share 45.36 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.114 | Return On Assets 0.0433 |
The market value of Bright Horizons Family is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Bright that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Bright Horizons' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Bright Horizons' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Bright Horizons' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Bright Horizons' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Bright Horizons' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Bright Horizons is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Bright Horizons' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.