Bright Horizons Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| BFAM Stock | USD 93.43 0.52 0.55% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Bright Horizons Family on the next trading day is expected to be 99.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.77 and the sum of the absolute errors of 169.03. Bright Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Bright Horizons' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Bright Horizons' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Bright Horizons fundamentals over time.
As of now the relative strength index (rsi) of Bright Horizons' share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.457 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.0942 | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.524 | EPS Estimate Next Year 5.1003 | Wall Street Target Price 127.3333 |
Using Bright Horizons hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Bright Horizons Family from the perspective of Bright Horizons response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Bright Horizons using Bright Horizons' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Bright using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Bright Horizons' stock price.
Bright Horizons Short Interest
An investor who is long Bright Horizons may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Bright Horizons and may potentially protect profits, hedge Bright Horizons with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 111.8217 | Short Percent 0.0286 | Short Ratio 2.47 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.6 M | 50 Day MA 100.5114 |
Bright Horizons Family Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Bright Horizons' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Bright. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Bright can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Bright Horizons Family. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Bright Horizons Implied Volatility | 0.8 |
Bright Horizons' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Bright Horizons Family stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Bright Horizons' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Bright Horizons stock will not fluctuate a lot when Bright Horizons' options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Bright Horizons Family on the next trading day is expected to be 99.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.77 and the sum of the absolute errors of 169.03. Bright Horizons after-hype prediction price | USD 93.46 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bright Horizons to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Bright contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Bright Horizons Family will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.05% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Bright Horizons trading at USD 93.43, that is roughly USD 0.0467 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Bright Horizons' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Bright Horizons Family options at the current volatility level of 0.8%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Bright Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Bright Horizons' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Bright Horizons' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Bright Horizons stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Bright Horizons' open interest, investors have to compare it to Bright Horizons' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Bright Horizons is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Bright. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Bright Horizons Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Bright price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Bright using various technical indicators. When you analyze Bright charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Bright Horizons Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Bright Horizons Family on the next trading day is expected to be 99.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.77, mean absolute percentage error of 11.57, and the sum of the absolute errors of 169.03.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bright Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bright Horizons' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Bright Horizons Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Bright Horizons | Bright Horizons Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Bright Horizons Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Bright Horizons' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bright Horizons' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 96.10 and 102.14, respectively. We have considered Bright Horizons' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bright Horizons stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bright Horizons stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.5591 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.771 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0279 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 169.0339 |
Predictive Modules for Bright Horizons
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bright Horizons Family. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Bright Horizons After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Bright Horizons at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Bright Horizons or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Bright Horizons, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Bright Horizons Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Bright Horizons' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Bright Horizons' historical news coverage. Bright Horizons' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 90.41 and 96.51, respectively. We have considered Bright Horizons' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Bright Horizons is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Bright Horizons Family is based on 3 months time horizon.
Bright Horizons Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Bright Horizons is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Bright Horizons backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Bright Horizons, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.05 | 3.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 8 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
93.43 | 93.46 | 0.03 |
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Bright Horizons Hype Timeline
Bright Horizons Family is currently traded for 93.43. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. Bright is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 93.46 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.03%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.05%. The volatility of related hype on Bright Horizons is about 940.81%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 93.45. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 2.69 B. Net Income was 140.19 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 726.17 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bright Horizons to cross-verify your projections.Bright Horizons Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Bright Horizons' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Bright Horizons' future price movements. Getting to know how Bright Horizons' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Bright Horizons may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HRB | HR Block | (0.17) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 1.90 | (3.51) | 7.69 | |
| BOOT | Boot Barn Holdings | 0.47 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 4.65 | (3.56) | 11.44 | |
| ATAT | Atour Lifestyle Holdings | 0.57 | 30 per month | 2.44 | (0.02) | 5.36 | (3.79) | 11.35 | |
| FTDR | Frontdoor | (1.00) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.10 | (2.86) | 18.24 | |
| WING | Wingstop | 1.73 | 29 per month | 2.99 | 0.02 | 7.69 | (4.51) | 15.81 | |
| LNW | Light Wonder | 0.47 | 7 per month | 1.62 | 0.07 | 3.55 | (2.94) | 14.31 | |
| ETSY | Etsy Inc | 1.62 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.69 | (5.03) | 15.04 | |
| MTN | Vail Resorts | 1.01 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.44 | (3.39) | 13.29 | |
| MAT | Mattel Inc | (0.61) | 9 per month | 1.89 | 0.06 | 3.98 | (3.26) | 8.61 | |
| LEA | Lear Corporation | (0.88) | 8 per month | 1.27 | 0.13 | 3.50 | (2.18) | 8.69 |
Other Forecasting Options for Bright Horizons
For every potential investor in Bright, whether a beginner or expert, Bright Horizons' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bright Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bright. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bright Horizons' price trends.Bright Horizons Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bright Horizons stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bright Horizons could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bright Horizons by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Bright Horizons Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bright Horizons stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bright Horizons shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bright Horizons stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Bright Horizons Family entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Bright Horizons Risk Indicators
The analysis of Bright Horizons' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bright Horizons' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bright stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.61 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.94 | |||
| Variance | 8.65 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Bright Horizons
The number of cover stories for Bright Horizons depends on current market conditions and Bright Horizons' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Bright Horizons is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Bright Horizons' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Bright Horizons Short Properties
Bright Horizons' future price predictability will typically decrease when Bright Horizons' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Bright Horizons Family often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Bright Horizons' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Bright Horizons' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 58.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 122 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bright Horizons to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the USA ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA.
Is Diversified Consumer Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Bright Horizons. If investors know Bright will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Bright Horizons listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.457 | Earnings Share 3.47 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.116 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Bright Horizons Family is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Bright that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Bright Horizons' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Bright Horizons' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Bright Horizons' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Bright Horizons' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Bright Horizons' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Bright Horizons is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Bright Horizons' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.