Blue Bird Corp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 31.25
| BLBD Stock | USD 42.83 1.65 4.01% |
Blue |
Blue Bird Target Price Odds to finish over 31.25
The tendency of Blue Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 31.25 in 90 days |
| 42.83 | 90 days | 31.25 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Blue Bird to stay above $ 31.25 in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Blue Bird Corp probability density function shows the probability of Blue Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Blue Bird Corp price to stay between $ 31.25 and its current price of $42.83 at the end of the 90-day period is about 28.68 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.18 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Blue Bird will likely underperform. Additionally Blue Bird Corp has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Blue Bird Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Blue Bird
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Blue Bird Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Blue Bird Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Blue Bird is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Blue Bird's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Blue Bird Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Blue Bird within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.31 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.18 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.39 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.1 |
Blue Bird Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Blue Bird for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Blue Bird Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Blue Bird Corp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Blue Bird Corp has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 97.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Blue Bird Corp Q4 2024 Earnings Report Preview What To Look For |
Blue Bird Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Blue Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Blue Bird's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Blue Bird's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 33.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 127.7 M |
Blue Bird Technical Analysis
Blue Bird's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Blue Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Blue Bird Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Blue Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Blue Bird Predictive Forecast Models
Blue Bird's time-series forecasting models is one of many Blue Bird's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Blue Bird's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Blue Bird Corp
Checking the ongoing alerts about Blue Bird for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Blue Bird Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Blue Bird Corp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Blue Bird Corp has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 97.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Blue Bird Corp Q4 2024 Earnings Report Preview What To Look For |
Check out Blue Bird Backtesting, Blue Bird Valuation, Blue Bird Correlation, Blue Bird Hype Analysis, Blue Bird Volatility, Blue Bird History as well as Blue Bird Performance. You can also try the Idea Breakdown module to analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes.
Is Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Blue Bird. If investors know Blue will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Blue Bird listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.931 | Earnings Share 3.01 | Revenue Per Share 40.348 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.133 | Return On Assets 0.2078 |
The market value of Blue Bird Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Blue that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Blue Bird's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Blue Bird's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Blue Bird's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Blue Bird's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Blue Bird's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Blue Bird is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Blue Bird's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.