Blue Bird Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| BLBD Stock | USD 50.06 1.02 2.08% |
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Blue Bird Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 49.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.78 and the sum of the absolute errors of 45.73. Blue Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Blue Bird stock prices and determine the direction of Blue Bird Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Blue Bird's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the value of RSI of Blue Bird's share price is approaching 47 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Blue Bird, making its price go up or down. Momentum 47
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Blue Bird hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Blue Bird Corp from the perspective of Blue Bird response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Blue Bird Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 49.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.78 and the sum of the absolute errors of 45.73. Blue Bird after-hype prediction price | USD 50.06 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Blue Bird to cross-verify your projections. Blue Bird Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Blue price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Blue using various technical indicators. When you analyze Blue charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Blue Bird Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 23rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Blue Bird Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 49.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.78, mean absolute percentage error of 1.26, and the sum of the absolute errors of 45.73.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Blue Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Blue Bird's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Blue Bird Stock Forecast Pattern
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Blue Bird Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Blue Bird's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Blue Bird's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 47.45 and 51.65, respectively. We have considered Blue Bird's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Blue Bird stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Blue Bird stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.6659 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1144 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7751 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0153 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 45.73 |
Predictive Modules for Blue Bird
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Blue Bird Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Blue Bird After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Blue Bird at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Blue Bird or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Blue Bird, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Blue Bird Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Blue Bird's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Blue Bird's historical news coverage. Blue Bird's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 47.96 and 52.16, respectively. We have considered Blue Bird's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Blue Bird is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Blue Bird Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Blue Bird Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Blue Bird is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Blue Bird backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Blue Bird, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.17 | 2.10 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
50.06 | 50.06 | 0.00 |
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Blue Bird Hype Timeline
Blue Bird Corp is currently traded for 50.06. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.01. Blue is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.17%. %. The volatility of related hype on Blue Bird is about 6774.19%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 50.07. About 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.13. Blue Bird Corp had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 10:1 split on the October 4, 2010. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Blue Bird to cross-verify your projections.Blue Bird Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Blue Bird's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Blue Bird's future price movements. Getting to know how Blue Bird's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Blue Bird may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PSNY | Polestar Automotive Holding | 0.31 | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 12.04 | (14.88) | 34.99 | |
| AIN | Albany International | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.53 | (3.73) | 10.95 | |
| MCRI | Monarch Casino Resort | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.14 | (0.09) | 1.59 | (1.70) | 5.01 | |
| MBC | MasterBrand | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.95 | (0.01) | 5.50 | (3.25) | 15.86 | |
| WEN | The Wendys Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 4.07 | (3.13) | 11.11 | |
| TILE | Interface | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.74 | 0.06 | 2.93 | (2.51) | 8.15 | |
| PZZA | Papa Johns International | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 4.41 | (4.96) | 11.95 | |
| ACVA | ACV Auctions | 0.00 | 0 per month | 7.04 | (0.01) | 5.48 | (3.50) | 41.07 | |
| MODG | MODG Old | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.74 | 0.16 | 9.81 | (4.89) | 23.39 | |
| CCS | Century Communities | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.84 | 0.02 | 6.80 | (3.24) | 13.29 |
Other Forecasting Options for Blue Bird
For every potential investor in Blue, whether a beginner or expert, Blue Bird's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Blue Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Blue. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Blue Bird's price trends.Blue Bird Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Blue Bird stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Blue Bird could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Blue Bird by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Blue Bird Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Blue Bird stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Blue Bird shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Blue Bird stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Blue Bird Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Blue Bird Risk Indicators
The analysis of Blue Bird's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Blue Bird's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting blue stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.48 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.1 | |||
| Variance | 4.43 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Blue Bird
The number of cover stories for Blue Bird depends on current market conditions and Blue Bird's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Blue Bird is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Blue Bird's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Blue Bird Short Properties
Blue Bird's future price predictability will typically decrease when Blue Bird's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Blue Bird Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Blue Bird's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Blue Bird's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 32.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 229.3 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Blue Bird to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Earnings Calls module to check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges.
Is Stock space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Blue Bird. If investors know Blue will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Blue Bird listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Blue Bird Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Blue that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Blue Bird's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Blue Bird's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Blue Bird's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Blue Bird's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Blue Bird's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Blue Bird is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Blue Bird's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.