Caseys General Stores Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 377.99
| CASY Stock | USD 425.47 2.34 0.55% |
Caseys |
Caseys General Target Price Odds to finish below 377.99
The tendency of Caseys Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 377.99 or more in 90 days |
| 425.47 | 90 days | 377.99 | about 18.53 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Caseys General to drop to $ 377.99 or more in 90 days from now is about 18.53 (This Caseys General Stores probability density function shows the probability of Caseys Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Caseys General Stores price to stay between $ 377.99 and its current price of $425.47 at the end of the 90-day period is about 75.86 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Caseys General has a beta of 0.71 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Caseys General average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Caseys General Stores will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Caseys General Stores has an alpha of 0.1206, implying that it can generate a 0.12 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Caseys General Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Caseys General
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Caseys General Stores. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Caseys General's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Caseys General Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Caseys General is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Caseys General's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Caseys General Stores, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Caseys General within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.12 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.71 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 19.05 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.06 |
Caseys General Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Caseys General for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Caseys General Stores can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Caseys General Stores currently holds 1.75 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.7, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Caseys General Stores has a current ratio of 0.94, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Caseys General's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| Over 88.0% of Caseys General shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 15th of November 2024 Caseys General paid $ 0.5 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from investing.com: Caseys shares rise as Jefferies lifts price target to 485 |
Caseys General Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Caseys Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Caseys General's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Caseys General's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 37.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 206.5 M |
Caseys General Technical Analysis
Caseys General's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Caseys Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Caseys General Stores. In general, you should focus on analyzing Caseys Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Caseys General Predictive Forecast Models
Caseys General's time-series forecasting models is one of many Caseys General's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Caseys General's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Caseys General Stores
Checking the ongoing alerts about Caseys General for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Caseys General Stores help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Caseys General Stores currently holds 1.75 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.7, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Caseys General Stores has a current ratio of 0.94, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Caseys General's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| Over 88.0% of Caseys General shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 15th of November 2024 Caseys General paid $ 0.5 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from investing.com: Caseys shares rise as Jefferies lifts price target to 485 |
Additional Tools for Caseys Stock Analysis
When running Caseys General's price analysis, check to measure Caseys General's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Caseys General is operating at the current time. Most of Caseys General's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Caseys General's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Caseys General's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Caseys General to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.