Croghan Bancshares Stock Probability of Future OTC Stock Price Finishing Under 47.62
| CHBH Stock | USD 49.90 0.10 0.20% |
Croghan |
Croghan Bancshares Target Price Odds to finish below 47.62
The tendency of Croghan OTC Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 47.62 or more in 90 days |
| 49.90 | 90 days | 47.62 | about 62.14 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Croghan Bancshares to drop to $ 47.62 or more in 90 days from now is about 62.14 (This Croghan Bancshares probability density function shows the probability of Croghan OTC Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Croghan Bancshares price to stay between $ 47.62 and its current price of $49.9 at the end of the 90-day period is about 32.92 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Croghan Bancshares has a beta of 0.15 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Croghan Bancshares average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Croghan Bancshares will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Croghan Bancshares has an alpha of 0.0431, implying that it can generate a 0.0431 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Croghan Bancshares Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Croghan Bancshares
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Croghan Bancshares. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the otc stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the otc stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Croghan Bancshares Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Croghan Bancshares is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Croghan Bancshares' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Croghan Bancshares, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Croghan Bancshares within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.15 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.67 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
Croghan Bancshares Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Croghan OTC Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Croghan Bancshares' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Croghan Bancshares' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.2 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 4.7 M | |
| Forward Annual Dividend Rate | 2.28 | |
| Shares Float | 2 M |
Croghan Bancshares Technical Analysis
Croghan Bancshares' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Croghan OTC Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Croghan Bancshares. In general, you should focus on analyzing Croghan OTC Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Croghan Bancshares Predictive Forecast Models
Croghan Bancshares' time-series forecasting models is one of many Croghan Bancshares' otc stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Croghan Bancshares' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the otc stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Croghan Bancshares in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Croghan Bancshares' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Croghan Bancshares options trading.
Other Information on Investing in Croghan OTC Stock
Croghan Bancshares financial ratios help investors to determine whether Croghan OTC Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Croghan with respect to the benefits of owning Croghan Bancshares security.