Church Dwight Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 112.25
| CHD Stock | USD 111.90 0.35 0.31% |
Church |
Church Dwight Target Price Odds to finish below 112.25
The tendency of Church Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 112.25 after 90 days |
| 111.90 | 90 days | 112.25 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Church Dwight to stay under $ 112.25 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Church Dwight probability density function shows the probability of Church Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Church Dwight price to stay between its current price of $ 111.90 and $ 112.25 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Church Dwight has a beta of 0.13 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Church Dwight average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Church Dwight will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Church Dwight has an alpha of 0.116, implying that it can generate a 0.12 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Church Dwight Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Church Dwight
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Church Dwight. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Church Dwight Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Church Dwight is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Church Dwight's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Church Dwight, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Church Dwight within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.12 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.13 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.05 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.01 |
Church Dwight Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Church Dwight for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Church Dwight can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Over 90.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Church Dwight Co., Inc. Shares Purchased by Massachusetts Financial Services Co. MA |
Church Dwight Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Church Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Church Dwight's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Church Dwight's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 247.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 344.5 M |
Church Dwight Technical Analysis
Church Dwight's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Church Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Church Dwight. In general, you should focus on analyzing Church Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Church Dwight Predictive Forecast Models
Church Dwight's time-series forecasting models is one of many Church Dwight's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Church Dwight's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Church Dwight
Checking the ongoing alerts about Church Dwight for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Church Dwight help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Over 90.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Church Dwight Co., Inc. Shares Purchased by Massachusetts Financial Services Co. MA |
Check out Church Dwight Backtesting, Church Dwight Valuation, Church Dwight Correlation, Church Dwight Hype Analysis, Church Dwight Volatility, Church Dwight History as well as Church Dwight Performance. For information on how to trade Church Stock refer to our How to Trade Church Stock guide.You can also try the Alpha Finder module to use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk.
Is Household Products space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Church Dwight. If investors know Church will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Church Dwight listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.112 | Dividend Share 1.121 | Earnings Share 2.23 | Revenue Per Share 24.777 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.038 |
The market value of Church Dwight is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Church that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Church Dwight's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Church Dwight's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Church Dwight's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Church Dwight's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Church Dwight's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Church Dwight is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Church Dwight's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.