Church Dwight Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| CHD Stock | USD 91.96 4.29 4.46% |
Church Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Church Dwight stock prices and determine the direction of Church Dwight's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Church Dwight's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Church Dwight's share price is at 57 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Church Dwight, making its price go up or down. Momentum 57
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.21) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.9647 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.7083 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.9826 | Wall Street Target Price 96.3684 |
Using Church Dwight hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Church Dwight from the perspective of Church Dwight response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Church Dwight using Church Dwight's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Church using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Church Dwight's stock price.
Church Dwight Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Church Dwight's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Church. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Church Dwight stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 91.6121 | Short Percent 0.0503 | Short Ratio 4.83 | Shares Short Prior Month 9.5 M | 50 Day MA 85.9886 |
Church Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Church Dwight on the next trading day is expected to be 92.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.90 and the sum of the absolute errors of 54.13.Church Dwight Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Church Dwight's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Church. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Church can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Church Dwight. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Church Dwight's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Church Dwight.
Church Dwight Implied Volatility | 0.41 |
Church Dwight's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Church Dwight stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Church Dwight's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Church Dwight stock will not fluctuate a lot when Church Dwight's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Church Dwight on the next trading day is expected to be 92.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.90 and the sum of the absolute errors of 54.13. Church Dwight after-hype prediction price | USD 92.04 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Church Dwight to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Church contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Church Dwight will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0256% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Church Dwight trading at USD 91.96, that is roughly USD 0.0236 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Church Dwight's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Church Dwight options at the current volatility level of 0.41%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Church Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Church Dwight's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Church Dwight's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Church Dwight stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Church Dwight's open interest, investors have to compare it to Church Dwight's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Church Dwight is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Church. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Church Dwight Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Church price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Church using various technical indicators. When you analyze Church charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Church Dwight Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 2nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Church Dwight on the next trading day is expected to be 92.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.90, mean absolute percentage error of 1.46, and the sum of the absolute errors of 54.13.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Church Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Church Dwight's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Church Dwight Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Church Dwight | Church Dwight Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Church Dwight Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Church Dwight's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Church Dwight's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 91.44 and 94.30, respectively. We have considered Church Dwight's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Church Dwight stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Church Dwight stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.6537 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1581 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9021 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0104 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 54.1267 |
Predictive Modules for Church Dwight
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Church Dwight. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Church Dwight After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Church Dwight at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Church Dwight or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Church Dwight, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Church Dwight Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Church Dwight's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Church Dwight's historical news coverage. Church Dwight's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 90.61 and 93.47, respectively. We have considered Church Dwight's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Church Dwight is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Church Dwight is based on 3 months time horizon.
Church Dwight Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Church Dwight is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Church Dwight backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Church Dwight, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.12 | 1.43 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
91.96 | 92.04 | 0.09 |
|
Church Dwight Hype Timeline
On the 1st of February Church Dwight is traded for 91.96. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.08, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.05. Church is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 92.04 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.09%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.12%. The volatility of related hype on Church Dwight is about 317.07%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 92.01. The company reported the last year's revenue of 6.2 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 736.8 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 2.76 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Church Dwight to cross-verify your projections.Church Dwight Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Church Dwight's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Church Dwight's future price movements. Getting to know how Church Dwight's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Church Dwight may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DLTR | Dollar Tree | 3.01 | 11 per month | 1.87 | 0.1 | 4.05 | (2.85) | 10.30 | |
| DG | Dollar General | (2.49) | 8 per month | 1.56 | 0.18 | 4.59 | (2.38) | 20.14 | |
| STZ | Constellation Brands Class | 4.07 | 8 per month | 1.27 | 0.08 | 3.59 | (2.20) | 7.49 | |
| SGI | Somnigroup International | (0.58) | 13 per month | 1.43 | 0.05 | 2.56 | (2.39) | 15.47 | |
| TSN | Tyson Foods | (0.29) | 11 per month | 1.10 | 0.21 | 3.17 | (2.03) | 8.77 | |
| CLX | The Clorox | (0.74) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 1.86 | (2.81) | 7.64 | |
| BG | Bunge Limited | 2.00 | 9 per month | 0.84 | 0.15 | 3.20 | (1.84) | 6.25 | |
| FMX | Fomento Economico Mexicano | 0.40 | 9 per month | 0.99 | 0.11 | 2.37 | (1.88) | 7.81 | |
| KOF | Coca Cola Femsa SAB | (0.65) | 10 per month | 0.99 | 0.17 | 2.76 | (1.79) | 6.00 | |
| KVUE | Kenvue Inc | (0.22) | 10 per month | 1.01 | 0.10 | 2.27 | (2.09) | 15.22 |
Other Forecasting Options for Church Dwight
For every potential investor in Church, whether a beginner or expert, Church Dwight's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Church Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Church. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Church Dwight's price trends.Church Dwight Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Church Dwight stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Church Dwight could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Church Dwight by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Church Dwight Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Church Dwight stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Church Dwight shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Church Dwight stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Church Dwight entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Church Dwight Risk Indicators
The analysis of Church Dwight's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Church Dwight's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting church stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.05 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.19 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.51 | |||
| Variance | 2.28 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.74 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.41 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.13) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Church Dwight
The number of cover stories for Church Dwight depends on current market conditions and Church Dwight's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Church Dwight is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Church Dwight's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Church Dwight to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Church Stock refer to our How to Trade Church Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.
Will Household Products sector continue expanding? Could Church diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Church Dwight. Projected growth potential of Church fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Church Dwight data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.21) | Earnings Share 3.02 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.05 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Church Dwight is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Church that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Church Dwight's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Church Dwight's true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because Church Dwight's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Church Dwight's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Church Dwight's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Church Dwight should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Meanwhile, Church Dwight's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.