Churchill Downs (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 106.09
| CHR Stock | 133.00 1.00 0.76% |
Churchill |
Churchill Downs Target Price Odds to finish below 106.09
The tendency of Churchill Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 106.09 or more in 90 days |
| 133.00 | 90 days | 106.09 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Churchill Downs to drop to 106.09 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Churchill Downs Incorporated probability density function shows the probability of Churchill Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Churchill Downs price to stay between 106.09 and its current price of 133.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 90.68 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Churchill Downs has a beta of 0.0236 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Churchill Downs average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Churchill Downs Incorporated will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Churchill Downs Incorporated has an alpha of 0.0944, implying that it can generate a 0.0944 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Churchill Downs Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Churchill Downs
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Churchill Downs. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Churchill Downs' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Churchill Downs Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Churchill Downs is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Churchill Downs' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Churchill Downs Incorporated, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Churchill Downs within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.09 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.02 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.47 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.02 |
Churchill Downs Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Churchill Downs for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Churchill Downs can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Over 77.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Churchill Downs Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Churchill Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Churchill Downs' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Churchill Downs' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 37.4 M |
Churchill Downs Technical Analysis
Churchill Downs' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Churchill Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Churchill Downs Incorporated. In general, you should focus on analyzing Churchill Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Churchill Downs Predictive Forecast Models
Churchill Downs' time-series forecasting models is one of many Churchill Downs' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Churchill Downs' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Churchill Downs
Checking the ongoing alerts about Churchill Downs for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Churchill Downs help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Over 77.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Additional Tools for Churchill Stock Analysis
When running Churchill Downs' price analysis, check to measure Churchill Downs' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Churchill Downs is operating at the current time. Most of Churchill Downs' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Churchill Downs' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Churchill Downs' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Churchill Downs to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.