ConocoPhillips (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 52.64
| COPH34 Stock | BRL 54.33 0.24 0.44% |
ConocoPhillips |
ConocoPhillips Target Price Odds to finish below 52.64
The tendency of ConocoPhillips Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to R$ 52.64 or more in 90 days |
| 54.33 | 90 days | 52.64 | about 76.07 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ConocoPhillips to drop to R$ 52.64 or more in 90 days from now is about 76.07 (This ConocoPhillips probability density function shows the probability of ConocoPhillips Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of ConocoPhillips price to stay between R$ 52.64 and its current price of R$54.33 at the end of the 90-day period is about 16.91 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon ConocoPhillips has a beta of 0.0299 suggesting as returns on the market go up, ConocoPhillips average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding ConocoPhillips will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally ConocoPhillips has an alpha of 0.0824, implying that it can generate a 0.0824 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). ConocoPhillips Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for ConocoPhillips
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ConocoPhillips. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.ConocoPhillips Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ConocoPhillips is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ConocoPhillips' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ConocoPhillips, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ConocoPhillips within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.08 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.03 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.18 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.02 |
ConocoPhillips Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of ConocoPhillips Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential ConocoPhillips' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ConocoPhillips' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.2 B |
ConocoPhillips Technical Analysis
ConocoPhillips' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ConocoPhillips Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ConocoPhillips. In general, you should focus on analyzing ConocoPhillips Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
ConocoPhillips Predictive Forecast Models
ConocoPhillips' time-series forecasting models is one of many ConocoPhillips' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary ConocoPhillips' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards ConocoPhillips in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, ConocoPhillips' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from ConocoPhillips options trading.
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in ConocoPhillips Stock
When determining whether ConocoPhillips is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if ConocoPhillips Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Conocophillips Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Conocophillips Stock:Check out ConocoPhillips Backtesting, ConocoPhillips Valuation, ConocoPhillips Correlation, ConocoPhillips Hype Analysis, ConocoPhillips Volatility, ConocoPhillips History as well as ConocoPhillips Performance. For information on how to trade ConocoPhillips Stock refer to our How to Trade ConocoPhillips Stock guide.You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.