ConocoPhillips (Brazil) Market Value
| COPH34 Stock | BRL 54.36 0.27 0.50% |
| Symbol | ConocoPhillips |
ConocoPhillips 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to ConocoPhillips' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of ConocoPhillips.
| 12/05/2022 |
| 11/24/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in ConocoPhillips on December 5, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding ConocoPhillips or generate 0.0% return on investment in ConocoPhillips over 720 days. ConocoPhillips is related to or competes with Petro Rio, Banco BTG, Ambipar Participaes, Mliuz SA, and Pet Center. ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas , ... More
ConocoPhillips Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure ConocoPhillips' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess ConocoPhillips upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.14 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0104 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 12.02 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.44) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.56 |
ConocoPhillips Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for ConocoPhillips' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as ConocoPhillips' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use ConocoPhillips historical prices to predict the future ConocoPhillips' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0615 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1855 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.19) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0104 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.41) |
ConocoPhillips Backtested Returns
At this point, ConocoPhillips is very steady. ConocoPhillips secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0486, which signifies that the company had a 0.0486% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for ConocoPhillips, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm ConocoPhillips' Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0615, downside deviation of 2.14, and Mean Deviation of 1.41 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.1%. ConocoPhillips has a performance score of 3 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.35, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning ConocoPhillips are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, ConocoPhillips is likely to outperform the market. ConocoPhillips right now shows a risk of 2.13%. Please confirm ConocoPhillips total risk alpha, treynor ratio, and the relationship between the jensen alpha and sortino ratio , to decide if ConocoPhillips will be following its price patterns.
Auto-correlation | -0.4 |
Poor reverse predictability
ConocoPhillips has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between ConocoPhillips time series from 5th of December 2022 to 30th of November 2023 and 30th of November 2023 to 24th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of ConocoPhillips price movement. The serial correlation of -0.4 indicates that just about 40.0% of current ConocoPhillips price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.4 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.03 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 9.81 |
ConocoPhillips lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is ConocoPhillips stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting ConocoPhillips' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of ConocoPhillips returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that ConocoPhillips has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
ConocoPhillips regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If ConocoPhillips stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if ConocoPhillips stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in ConocoPhillips stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
ConocoPhillips Lagged Returns
When evaluating ConocoPhillips' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of ConocoPhillips stock have on its future price. ConocoPhillips autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, ConocoPhillips autocorrelation shows the relationship between ConocoPhillips stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in ConocoPhillips.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Information and Resources on Investing in ConocoPhillips Stock
When determining whether ConocoPhillips is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if ConocoPhillips Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Conocophillips Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Conocophillips Stock:Check out ConocoPhillips Correlation, ConocoPhillips Volatility and ConocoPhillips Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on ConocoPhillips. For information on how to trade ConocoPhillips Stock refer to our How to Trade ConocoPhillips Stock guide.You can also try the Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.
ConocoPhillips technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.