Americas Car Mart Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 42.94
| CRMT Stock | USD 47.40 2.53 5.64% |
Americas |
Americas Car Target Price Odds to finish below 42.94
The tendency of Americas Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 42.94 or more in 90 days |
| 47.40 | 90 days | 42.94 | about 35.33 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Americas Car to drop to $ 42.94 or more in 90 days from now is about 35.33 (This Americas Car Mart probability density function shows the probability of Americas Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Americas Car Mart price to stay between $ 42.94 and its current price of $47.4 at the end of the 90-day period is about 25.79 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.16 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Americas Car will likely underperform. Additionally Americas Car Mart has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Americas Car Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Americas Car
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Americas Car Mart. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Americas Car Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Americas Car is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Americas Car's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Americas Car Mart, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Americas Car within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.5 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.16 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 6.77 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.13 |
Americas Car Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Americas Car for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Americas Car Mart can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Americas Car Mart generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Americas Car Mart has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.39 B. Net Loss for the year was (31.39 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 242.37 M. | |
| Americas Car Mart currently holds about 4.36 M in cash with (73.9 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.69. | |
| Americas Car Mart has a very weak financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 88.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Americas Car-Mart Inc Trading 2.86 percent Higher on Nov 22 |
Americas Car Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Americas Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Americas Car's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Americas Car's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 6.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 5.5 M |
Americas Car Technical Analysis
Americas Car's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Americas Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Americas Car Mart. In general, you should focus on analyzing Americas Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Americas Car Predictive Forecast Models
Americas Car's time-series forecasting models is one of many Americas Car's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Americas Car's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Americas Car Mart
Checking the ongoing alerts about Americas Car for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Americas Car Mart help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Americas Car Mart generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Americas Car Mart has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.39 B. Net Loss for the year was (31.39 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 242.37 M. | |
| Americas Car Mart currently holds about 4.36 M in cash with (73.9 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.69. | |
| Americas Car Mart has a very weak financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 88.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Americas Car-Mart Inc Trading 2.86 percent Higher on Nov 22 |
Additional Tools for Americas Stock Analysis
When running Americas Car's price analysis, check to measure Americas Car's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Americas Car is operating at the current time. Most of Americas Car's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Americas Car's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Americas Car's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Americas Car to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.