Americas Car Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| CRMT Stock | USD 24.80 1.36 5.20% |
Americas Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the value of rsi of Americas Car's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 18.346 | EPS Estimate Current Year (3.47) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.865 | Wall Street Target Price 37 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.57) |
Using Americas Car hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Americas Car Mart from the perspective of Americas Car response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Americas Relative Strength Index
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Americas Car Mart on the next trading day is expected to be 28.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.60 and the sum of the absolute errors of 97.52.Americas Car Mart Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Americas Car's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Americas. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Americas can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Americas Car Mart. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Americas Car's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Americas Car.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Americas Car Mart on the next trading day is expected to be 28.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.60 and the sum of the absolute errors of 97.52. Americas Car after-hype prediction price | USD 25.87 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Americas Car to cross-verify your projections. Americas Car Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Americas price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Americas using various technical indicators. When you analyze Americas charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Americas Car Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 6th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Americas Car Mart on the next trading day is expected to be 28.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.60, mean absolute percentage error of 3.70, and the sum of the absolute errors of 97.52.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Americas Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Americas Car's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Americas Car Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Americas Car | Americas Car Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Americas Car Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Americas Car's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Americas Car's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 24.57 and 32.90, respectively. We have considered Americas Car's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Americas Car stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Americas Car stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.418 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.5987 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0675 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 97.5182 |
Predictive Modules for Americas Car
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Americas Car Mart. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Americas Car After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Americas Car at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Americas Car or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Americas Car, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Americas Car Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Americas Car's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Americas Car's historical news coverage. Americas Car's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 21.71 and 30.03, respectively. We have considered Americas Car's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Americas Car is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Americas Car Mart is based on 3 months time horizon.
Americas Car Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Americas Car is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Americas Car backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Americas Car, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.49 | 4.17 | 0.25 | 0.01 | 8 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
24.80 | 25.87 | 1.11 |
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Americas Car Hype Timeline
Americas Car Mart is currently traded for 24.80. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.25, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Americas is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 25.87. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -1.11%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.49%. The volatility of related hype on Americas Car is about 37909.09%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 24.81. About 15.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.37. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Americas Car Mart has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.58. The entity recorded a loss per share of 1.71. The firm had not issued any dividends in recent years. Americas Car had 3:2 split on the 15th of April 2005. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Americas Car to cross-verify your projections.Americas Car Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Americas Car's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Americas Car's future price movements. Getting to know how Americas Car's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Americas Car may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SDA | SunCar Technology Group | 0.00 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 3.96 | (4.27) | 16.19 | |
| FLXS | Flexsteel Industries | 0.30 | 9 per month | 1.63 | 0.15 | 5.22 | (3.04) | 9.20 | |
| JILL | JJill Inc | (0.09) | 7 per month | 2.99 | 0.05 | 5.40 | (3.54) | 19.92 | |
| CALI | iShares Short Term California | (0.02) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (1.49) | 0.06 | (0.04) | 0.14 | |
| HBB | Hamilton Beach Brands | (0.16) | 9 per month | 1.84 | 0.16 | 5.68 | (3.74) | 17.33 | |
| JAKK | JAKKS Pacific | 0.08 | 9 per month | 2.15 | (0) | 4.74 | (4.54) | 11.05 | |
| SRI | Stoneridge | 0.04 | 10 per month | 3.65 | 0.03 | 5.70 | (4.11) | 18.36 | |
| ESCA | Escalade Incorporated | (0.15) | 6 per month | 1.50 | 0.17 | 4.25 | (2.70) | 12.43 | |
| DBI | Designer Brands | 0.17 | 11 per month | 3.58 | 0.17 | 10.60 | (6.37) | 57.50 | |
| VIOT | Viomi Technology ADR | (0.06) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.40) | 4.88 | (6.60) | 17.65 |
Other Forecasting Options for Americas Car
For every potential investor in Americas, whether a beginner or expert, Americas Car's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Americas Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Americas. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Americas Car's price trends.Americas Car Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Americas Car stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Americas Car could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Americas Car by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Americas Car Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Americas Car stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Americas Car shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Americas Car stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Americas Car Mart entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 7038.03 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.67) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.95 | |||
| Day Median Price | 25.65 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 25.37 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.53) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.36) |
Americas Car Risk Indicators
The analysis of Americas Car's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Americas Car's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting americas stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.29 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.26 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.11 | |||
| Variance | 16.86 | |||
| Downside Variance | 11.63 | |||
| Semi Variance | 10.61 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.97) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Americas Car
The number of cover stories for Americas Car depends on current market conditions and Americas Car's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Americas Car is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Americas Car's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Americas Car Short Properties
Americas Car's future price predictability will typically decrease when Americas Car's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Americas Car Mart often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Americas Car's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Americas Car's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 7.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 9.8 M |
Additional Tools for Americas Stock Analysis
When running Americas Car's price analysis, check to measure Americas Car's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Americas Car is operating at the current time. Most of Americas Car's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Americas Car's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Americas Car's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Americas Car to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.