Citadel Income Fund Probability of Future Fund Price Finishing Under 0.86
| CTF-UN Fund | CAD 2.52 0.01 0.40% |
Citadel |
Citadel Income Target Price Odds to finish below 0.86
The tendency of Citadel Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to C$ 0.86 or more in 90 days |
| 2.52 | 90 days | 0.86 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Citadel Income to drop to C$ 0.86 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Citadel Income probability density function shows the probability of Citadel Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Citadel Income price to stay between C$ 0.86 and its current price of C$2.52 at the end of the 90-day period is about 42.71 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Citadel Income has a beta of -0.6 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Citadel Income are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Citadel Income is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Citadel Income has an alpha of 0.1837, implying that it can generate a 0.18 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Citadel Income Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Citadel Income
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Citadel Income. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Citadel Income's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Citadel Income Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Citadel Income is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Citadel Income's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Citadel Income, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Citadel Income within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.18 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.6 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.11 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.0048 |
Citadel Income Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Citadel Fund often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Citadel Income's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Citadel Income's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Trailing Annual Dividend Rate | 0.12 | |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Yield | 3.72% |
Citadel Income Technical Analysis
Citadel Income's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Citadel Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Citadel Income. In general, you should focus on analyzing Citadel Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Citadel Income Predictive Forecast Models
Citadel Income's time-series forecasting models is one of many Citadel Income's fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Citadel Income's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Citadel Income in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Citadel Income's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Citadel Income options trading.
Other Information on Investing in Citadel Fund
Citadel Income financial ratios help investors to determine whether Citadel Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Citadel with respect to the benefits of owning Citadel Income security.
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