Cavco Industries Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 492.79
| CVCO Stock | USD 512.91 18.95 3.84% |
Cavco |
Cavco Industries Target Price Odds to finish below 492.79
The tendency of Cavco Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 492.79 or more in 90 days |
| 512.91 | 90 days | 492.79 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Cavco Industries to drop to $ 492.79 or more in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Cavco Industries probability density function shows the probability of Cavco Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Cavco Industries price to stay between $ 492.79 and its current price of $512.91 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.4 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Cavco Industries will likely underperform. Additionally Cavco Industries has an alpha of 0.2152, implying that it can generate a 0.22 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Cavco Industries Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Cavco Industries
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cavco Industries. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Cavco Industries' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Cavco Industries Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Cavco Industries is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Cavco Industries' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Cavco Industries, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Cavco Industries within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.22 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.40 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 24.51 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.12 |
Cavco Industries Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Cavco Industries for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Cavco Industries can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Cavco Industries has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 98.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Cavco Industries Stock Surges Amid Strong Financial Performance |
Cavco Industries Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Cavco Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Cavco Industries' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cavco Industries' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 8.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 371 M |
Cavco Industries Technical Analysis
Cavco Industries' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Cavco Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Cavco Industries. In general, you should focus on analyzing Cavco Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Cavco Industries Predictive Forecast Models
Cavco Industries' time-series forecasting models is one of many Cavco Industries' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Cavco Industries' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Cavco Industries
Checking the ongoing alerts about Cavco Industries for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Cavco Industries help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Cavco Industries has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 98.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Cavco Industries Stock Surges Amid Strong Financial Performance |
Check out Cavco Industries Backtesting, Cavco Industries Valuation, Cavco Industries Correlation, Cavco Industries Hype Analysis, Cavco Industries Volatility, Cavco Industries History as well as Cavco Industries Performance. To learn how to invest in Cavco Stock, please use our How to Invest in Cavco Industries guide.You can also try the Balance Of Power module to check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios.
Is Household Durables space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Cavco Industries. If investors know Cavco will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Cavco Industries listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.109 | Earnings Share 17.68 | Revenue Per Share 223.038 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.123 | Return On Assets 0.0739 |
The market value of Cavco Industries is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Cavco that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Cavco Industries' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Cavco Industries' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Cavco Industries' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Cavco Industries' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Cavco Industries' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Cavco Industries is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Cavco Industries' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.