Cavco Industries Stock Forward View
| CVCO Stock | USD 492.02 125.48 20.32% |
Cavco Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of today, the relative strength index (RSI) of Cavco Industries' share price is approaching 32 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Cavco Industries, making its price go up or down. Momentum 32
Sell Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Cavco Industries hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Cavco Industries from the perspective of Cavco Industries response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Cavco Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 428.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 14.42 and the sum of the absolute errors of 879.86. Cavco Industries after-hype prediction price | USD 492.02 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cavco Industries to cross-verify your projections. Cavco Industries Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Cavco price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Cavco using various technical indicators. When you analyze Cavco charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Cavco Industries Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 2nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Cavco Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 428.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 14.42, mean absolute percentage error of 327.41, and the sum of the absolute errors of 879.86.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Cavco Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Cavco Industries' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Cavco Industries Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Cavco Industries | Cavco Industries Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Cavco Industries Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Cavco Industries' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Cavco Industries' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 425.07 and 431.68, respectively. We have considered Cavco Industries' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Cavco Industries stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Cavco Industries stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 123.9017 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 14.4239 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0247 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 879.8572 |
Predictive Modules for Cavco Industries
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cavco Industries. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Cavco Industries' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Cavco Industries After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Cavco Industries at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Cavco Industries or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Cavco Industries, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Cavco Industries Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Cavco Industries' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Cavco Industries' historical news coverage. Cavco Industries' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 488.71 and 495.33, respectively. We have considered Cavco Industries' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Cavco Industries is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Cavco Industries is based on 3 months time horizon.
Cavco Industries Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Cavco Industries is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Cavco Industries backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Cavco Industries, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.08 | 3.31 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 9 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
492.02 | 492.02 | 0.00 |
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Cavco Industries Hype Timeline
Cavco Industries is currently traded for 492.02. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.09, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.04. Cavco is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.08%. %. The volatility of related hype on Cavco Industries is about 645.22%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 492.06. About 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Cavco Industries was currently reported as 132.94. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.24. Cavco Industries recorded earning per share (EPS) of 23.0. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 2:1 split on the 1st of February 2005. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cavco Industries to cross-verify your projections.Cavco Industries Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Cavco Industries' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Cavco Industries' future price movements. Getting to know how Cavco Industries' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Cavco Industries may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SKY | Skyline | 4.16 | 23 per month | 1.93 | 0.09 | 4.56 | (3.89) | 17.78 | |
| KBH | KB Home | 3.89 | 19 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 4.30 | (2.48) | 15.09 | |
| MTH | Meritage | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.60 | 0.03 | 3.46 | (2.86) | 13.79 | |
| MHO | MI Homes | (3.42) | 9 per month | 1.77 | 0.02 | 4.51 | (3.54) | 10.17 | |
| CHH | Choice Hotels International | 3.89 | 10 per month | 1.91 | 0.03 | 4.35 | (3.41) | 10.14 | |
| GOLF | Acushnet Holdings Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.80 | 0.23 | 3.42 | (1.93) | 6.55 | |
| KTB | Kontoor Brands | (2.69) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 3.87 | (4.81) | 13.84 | |
| DORM | Dorman Products | 0.01 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 3.17 | (2.39) | 9.77 | |
| RUSHA | Rush Enterprises A | (0.58) | 6 per month | 1.44 | 0.18 | 3.25 | (2.49) | 10.82 | |
| SON | Sonoco Products | (0.13) | 9 per month | 0.85 | 0.20 | 3.18 | (1.66) | 6.16 |
Other Forecasting Options for Cavco Industries
For every potential investor in Cavco, whether a beginner or expert, Cavco Industries' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Cavco Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Cavco. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Cavco Industries' price trends.Cavco Industries Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Cavco Industries stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Cavco Industries could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Cavco Industries by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Cavco Industries Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Cavco Industries stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Cavco Industries shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Cavco Industries stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Cavco Industries entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Cavco Industries Risk Indicators
The analysis of Cavco Industries' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Cavco Industries' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cavco stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.81 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.31 | |||
| Variance | 10.92 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Cavco Industries
The number of cover stories for Cavco Industries depends on current market conditions and Cavco Industries' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Cavco Industries is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Cavco Industries' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Cavco Industries Short Properties
Cavco Industries' future price predictability will typically decrease when Cavco Industries' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Cavco Industries often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Cavco Industries' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cavco Industries' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 8.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 376.1 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cavco Industries to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Cavco Stock, please use our How to Invest in Cavco Industries guide.You can also try the Stock Tickers module to use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites.
Will Household Durables sector continue expanding? Could Cavco diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Cavco Industries. Projected growth potential of Cavco fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Cavco Industries data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Understanding Cavco Industries requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Cavco's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what Cavco Industries' is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Cavco Industries' price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Cavco Industries' intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Cavco Industries should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. In contrast, Cavco Industries' trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.