Delcath Systems Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 9.05
| DCTH Stock | USD 10.50 0.74 7.58% |
Delcath |
Delcath Systems Target Price Odds to finish below 9.05
The tendency of Delcath Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 9.05 or more in 90 days |
| 10.50 | 90 days | 9.05 | about 19.28 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Delcath Systems to drop to $ 9.05 or more in 90 days from now is about 19.28 (This Delcath Systems probability density function shows the probability of Delcath Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Delcath Systems price to stay between $ 9.05 and its current price of $10.5 at the end of the 90-day period is about 58.96 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Delcath Systems has a beta of 0.14 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Delcath Systems average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Delcath Systems will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Delcath Systems has an alpha of 0.0091, implying that it can generate a 0.009075 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Delcath Systems Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Delcath Systems
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Delcath Systems. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Delcath Systems' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Delcath Systems Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Delcath Systems is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Delcath Systems' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Delcath Systems, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Delcath Systems within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.01 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.14 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.88 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.03 |
Delcath Systems Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Delcath Systems for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Delcath Systems can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Delcath Systems had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Delcath Systems has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 2.06 M. Net Loss for the year was (47.68 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 2.03 M. | |
| Delcath Systems currently holds about 10.2 M in cash with (31.25 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.19. | |
| Delcath Systems has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures |
Delcath Systems Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Delcath Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Delcath Systems' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Delcath Systems' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 16.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 32.5 M |
Delcath Systems Technical Analysis
Delcath Systems' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Delcath Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Delcath Systems. In general, you should focus on analyzing Delcath Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Delcath Systems Predictive Forecast Models
Delcath Systems' time-series forecasting models is one of many Delcath Systems' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Delcath Systems' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Delcath Systems
Checking the ongoing alerts about Delcath Systems for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Delcath Systems help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Delcath Systems had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Delcath Systems has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 2.06 M. Net Loss for the year was (47.68 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 2.03 M. | |
| Delcath Systems currently holds about 10.2 M in cash with (31.25 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.19. | |
| Delcath Systems has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures |
Check out Delcath Systems Backtesting, Delcath Systems Valuation, Delcath Systems Correlation, Delcath Systems Hype Analysis, Delcath Systems Volatility, Delcath Systems History as well as Delcath Systems Performance. For more detail on how to invest in Delcath Stock please use our How to Invest in Delcath Systems guide.You can also try the Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.
Is Health Care Equipment & Supplies space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Delcath Systems. If investors know Delcath will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Delcath Systems listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Delcath Systems is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Delcath that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Delcath Systems' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Delcath Systems' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Delcath Systems' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Delcath Systems' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Delcath Systems' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Delcath Systems is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Delcath Systems' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.