Assured Guaranty (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 86.50
| DHU Stock | EUR 86.50 1.00 1.17% |
Assured |
Assured Guaranty Target Price Odds to finish over 86.50
The tendency of Assured Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 86.50 | 90 days | 86.50 | about 11.09 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Assured Guaranty to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 11.09 (This Assured Guaranty probability density function shows the probability of Assured Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.77 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Assured Guaranty will likely underperform. Additionally Assured Guaranty has an alpha of 0.2666, implying that it can generate a 0.27 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Assured Guaranty Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Assured Guaranty
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Assured Guaranty. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Assured Guaranty Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Assured Guaranty is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Assured Guaranty's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Assured Guaranty, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Assured Guaranty within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.27 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.77 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 6.68 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.11 |
Assured Guaranty Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Assured Guaranty for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Assured Guaranty can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Assured Guaranty had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Assured Guaranty has accumulated 1.67 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 19.8, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Assured Guaranty has a current ratio of 0.65, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Assured Guaranty until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Assured Guaranty's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Assured Guaranty sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Assured to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Assured Guaranty's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Assured Guaranty has accumulated about 850 M in cash with (1.94 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 8.38. | |
| Over 90.0% of Assured Guaranty shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Assured Guaranty Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Assured Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Assured Guaranty's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Assured Guaranty's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 67.5 M |
Assured Guaranty Technical Analysis
Assured Guaranty's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Assured Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Assured Guaranty. In general, you should focus on analyzing Assured Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Assured Guaranty Predictive Forecast Models
Assured Guaranty's time-series forecasting models is one of many Assured Guaranty's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Assured Guaranty's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Assured Guaranty
Checking the ongoing alerts about Assured Guaranty for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Assured Guaranty help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Assured Guaranty had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Assured Guaranty has accumulated 1.67 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 19.8, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Assured Guaranty has a current ratio of 0.65, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Assured Guaranty until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Assured Guaranty's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Assured Guaranty sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Assured to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Assured Guaranty's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Assured Guaranty has accumulated about 850 M in cash with (1.94 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 8.38. | |
| Over 90.0% of Assured Guaranty shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Assured Stock
When determining whether Assured Guaranty offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Assured Guaranty's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Assured Guaranty Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Assured Guaranty Stock:Check out Assured Guaranty Backtesting, Assured Guaranty Valuation, Assured Guaranty Correlation, Assured Guaranty Hype Analysis, Assured Guaranty Volatility, Assured Guaranty History as well as Assured Guaranty Performance. For more detail on how to invest in Assured Stock please use our How to Invest in Assured Guaranty guide.You can also try the Sign In To Macroaxis module to sign in to explore Macroaxis' wealth optimization platform and fintech modules.