Dollar Tree Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 58.38
| DLTR Stock | USD 65.76 2.58 4.08% |
Closest to current price Dollar long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Dollar |
Dollar Tree Target Price Odds to finish below 58.38
The tendency of Dollar Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 58.38 or more in 90 days |
| 65.76 | 90 days | 58.38 | about 9.37 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Dollar Tree to drop to $ 58.38 or more in 90 days from now is about 9.37 (This Dollar Tree probability density function shows the probability of Dollar Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Dollar Tree price to stay between $ 58.38 and its current price of $65.76 at the end of the 90-day period is about 18.73 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Dollar Tree has a beta of -0.41 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Dollar Tree are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Dollar Tree is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Dollar Tree has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Dollar Tree Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Dollar Tree
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Dollar Tree. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Dollar Tree's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Dollar Tree Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Dollar Tree is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Dollar Tree's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Dollar Tree, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Dollar Tree within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.58 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.41 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 10.01 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.19 |
Dollar Tree Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Dollar Tree for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Dollar Tree can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Dollar Tree generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Dollar Tree has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 30.6 B. Net Loss for the year was (998.4 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 8.94 B. | |
| Dollar Tree has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 100.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from businesswire.com: Dollar Tree, Inc. to Host Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call |
Dollar Tree Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Dollar Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Dollar Tree's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Dollar Tree's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 219.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 684.9 M |
Dollar Tree Technical Analysis
Dollar Tree's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Dollar Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Dollar Tree. In general, you should focus on analyzing Dollar Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Dollar Tree Predictive Forecast Models
Dollar Tree's time-series forecasting models is one of many Dollar Tree's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Dollar Tree's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Dollar Tree
Checking the ongoing alerts about Dollar Tree for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Dollar Tree help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Dollar Tree generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Dollar Tree has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 30.6 B. Net Loss for the year was (998.4 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 8.94 B. | |
| Dollar Tree has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 100.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from businesswire.com: Dollar Tree, Inc. to Host Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call |
Additional Tools for Dollar Stock Analysis
When running Dollar Tree's price analysis, check to measure Dollar Tree's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Dollar Tree is operating at the current time. Most of Dollar Tree's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Dollar Tree's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Dollar Tree's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Dollar Tree to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.