First Guaranty Bancshares Preferred Stock Probability of Future Preferred Stock Price Finishing Over 22.17
| FGBIP Preferred Stock | USD 21.70 0.47 2.12% |
First |
First Guaranty Target Price Odds to finish over 22.17
The tendency of First Preferred Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 22.17 or more in 90 days |
| 21.70 | 90 days | 22.17 | about 9.32 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of First Guaranty to move over $ 22.17 or more in 90 days from now is about 9.32 (This First Guaranty Bancshares probability density function shows the probability of First Preferred Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of First Guaranty Bancshares price to stay between its current price of $ 21.70 and $ 22.17 at the end of the 90-day period is about 12.99 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon First Guaranty has a beta of 0.38. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, First Guaranty average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding First Guaranty Bancshares will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally First Guaranty Bancshares has an alpha of 0.114, implying that it can generate a 0.11 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). First Guaranty Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for First Guaranty
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Guaranty Bancshares. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the preferred stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the preferred stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.First Guaranty Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. First Guaranty is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the First Guaranty's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold First Guaranty Bancshares, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of First Guaranty within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.11 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.38 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.84 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.03 |
First Guaranty Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of First Preferred Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential First Guaranty's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. First Guaranty's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 10.7 M |
First Guaranty Technical Analysis
First Guaranty's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. First Preferred Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of First Guaranty Bancshares. In general, you should focus on analyzing First Preferred Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
First Guaranty Predictive Forecast Models
First Guaranty's time-series forecasting models is one of many First Guaranty's preferred stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary First Guaranty's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the preferred stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards First Guaranty in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, First Guaranty's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from First Guaranty options trading.
Additional Tools for First Preferred Stock Analysis
When running First Guaranty's price analysis, check to measure First Guaranty's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy First Guaranty is operating at the current time. Most of First Guaranty's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of First Guaranty's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move First Guaranty's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of First Guaranty to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.