Five Below Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 162.42
| FIVE Stock | USD 86.92 3.43 4.11% |
Five |
Five Below Target Price Odds to finish below 162.42
The tendency of Five Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 162.42 after 90 days |
| 86.92 | 90 days | 162.42 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Five Below to stay under $ 162.42 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Five Below probability density function shows the probability of Five Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Five Below price to stay between its current price of $ 86.92 and $ 162.42 at the end of the 90-day period is about 62.72 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Five Below has a beta of -0.45. This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Five Below are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Five Below is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Five Below has an alpha of 0.2118, implying that it can generate a 0.21 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Five Below Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Five Below
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Five Below. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Five Below's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Five Below Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Five Below is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Five Below's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Five Below, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Five Below within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.21 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.45 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 6.32 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.01 |
Five Below Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Five Below for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Five Below can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Five Below had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Five Below is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Five Below has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Five Below Inc Shares Up 3.57 percent on Nov 22 |
Five Below Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Five Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Five Below's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Five Below's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 55.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 460.1 M |
Five Below Technical Analysis
Five Below's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Five Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Five Below. In general, you should focus on analyzing Five Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Five Below Predictive Forecast Models
Five Below's time-series forecasting models is one of many Five Below's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Five Below's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Five Below
Checking the ongoing alerts about Five Below for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Five Below help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Five Below had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Five Below is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Five Below has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Five Below Inc Shares Up 3.57 percent on Nov 22 |
Check out Five Below Backtesting, Five Below Valuation, Five Below Correlation, Five Below Hype Analysis, Five Below Volatility, Five Below History as well as Five Below Performance. For information on how to trade Five Stock refer to our How to Trade Five Stock guide.You can also try the Sync Your Broker module to sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors..
Is Other Specialty Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Five Below. If investors know Five will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Five Below listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.29) | Earnings Share 5.07 | Revenue Per Share 67.314 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.094 | Return On Assets 0.0599 |
The market value of Five Below is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Five that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Five Below's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Five Below's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Five Below's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Five Below's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Five Below's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Five Below is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Five Below's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.