Five Below Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| FIVE Stock | USD 188.36 0.23 0.12% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Five Below on the next trading day is expected to be 183.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 193.51. Five Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Five Below stock prices and determine the direction of Five Below's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Five Below's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the value of rsi of Five Below's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 21 | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.8844 | EPS Estimate Next Year 6.2643 | Wall Street Target Price 186.2381 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.2562 |
Using Five Below hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Five Below from the perspective of Five Below response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Five Below using Five Below's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Five using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Five Below's stock price.
Five Below Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Five Below's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Five. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Five Below stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 131.3073 | Short Percent 0.0421 | Short Ratio 1.46 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.7 M | 50 Day MA 165.4906 |
Five Below Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Five Below's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Five. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Five can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Five Below. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Five Below's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Five Below.
Five Below Implied Volatility | 0.71 |
Five Below's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Five Below stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Five Below's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Five Below stock will not fluctuate a lot when Five Below's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Five Below on the next trading day is expected to be 183.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 193.51. Five Below after-hype prediction price | USD 188.36 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Five Below to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Five Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Five Below's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Five Below's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Five Below stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Five Below's open interest, investors have to compare it to Five Below's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Five Below is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Five. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Five Below Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Five price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Five using various technical indicators. When you analyze Five charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Five Below Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Five Below's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2012-01-31 | Previous Quarter 562.7 M | Current Value 351 M | Quarterly Volatility 119.5 M |
Five Below Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 3rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Five Below on the next trading day is expected to be 183.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.17, mean absolute percentage error of 15.68, and the sum of the absolute errors of 193.51.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Five Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Five Below's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Five Below Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Five Below | Five Below Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Five Below Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Five Below's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Five Below's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 180.77 and 185.57, respectively. We have considered Five Below's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Five Below stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Five Below stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.8627 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.1723 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0199 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 193.5102 |
Predictive Modules for Five Below
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Five Below. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Five Below's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Five Below
For every potential investor in Five, whether a beginner or expert, Five Below's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Five Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Five. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Five Below's price trends.Five Below Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Five Below stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Five Below could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Five Below by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Five Below Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Five Below's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Five Below's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Five Below Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Five Below stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Five Below shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Five Below stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Five Below entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0192 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.06) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 189.22 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 188.93 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 3.66 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.97) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.23) |
Five Below Risk Indicators
The analysis of Five Below's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Five Below's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting five stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.6 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.08 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.34 | |||
| Variance | 5.48 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.72 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.32 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.70) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.| JBL | Jabil Circuit | |
| MRK | Merck Company | |
| AMGN | Amgen Inc |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Five Below to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Five Stock refer to our How to Trade Five Stock guide.You can also try the Top Crypto Exchanges module to search and analyze digital assets across top global cryptocurrency exchanges.
Is Other Specialty Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Five Below. If investors know Five will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Five Below listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 21 | Earnings Share 5.58 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.231 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Five Below is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Five that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Five Below's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Five Below's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Five Below's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Five Below's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Five Below's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Five Below is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Five Below's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.