First Trustconfluence Small Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 25.51
| FOVCX Fund | USD 26.30 0.07 0.27% |
First |
First Trustconfluence Target Price Odds to finish over 25.51
The tendency of First Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 25.51 in 90 days |
| 26.30 | 90 days | 25.51 | about 27.43 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of First Trustconfluence to stay above $ 25.51 in 90 days from now is about 27.43 (This First Trustconfluence Small probability density function shows the probability of First Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of First Trustconfluence price to stay between $ 25.51 and its current price of $26.3 at the end of the 90-day period is about 25.96 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon the mutual fund has the beta coefficient of 1.13 . This usually indicates First Trustconfluence Small market returns are sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, First Trustconfluence is expected to follow. Additionally First Trustconfluence Small has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. First Trustconfluence Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for First Trustconfluence
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Trustconfluence. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of First Trustconfluence's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
First Trustconfluence Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. First Trustconfluence is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the First Trustconfluence's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold First Trustconfluence Small, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of First Trustconfluence within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.09 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.13 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.50 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.07 |
First Trustconfluence Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of First Trustconfluence for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for First Trustconfluence can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The fund generated three year return of -2.0% | |
| First Trustconfluence retains 98.73% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities |
First Trustconfluence Technical Analysis
First Trustconfluence's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. First Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of First Trustconfluence Small. In general, you should focus on analyzing First Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
First Trustconfluence Predictive Forecast Models
First Trustconfluence's time-series forecasting models is one of many First Trustconfluence's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary First Trustconfluence's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about First Trustconfluence
Checking the ongoing alerts about First Trustconfluence for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for First Trustconfluence help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The fund generated three year return of -2.0% | |
| First Trustconfluence retains 98.73% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities |
Other Information on Investing in First Mutual Fund
First Trustconfluence financial ratios help investors to determine whether First Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in First with respect to the benefits of owning First Trustconfluence security.
| Correlation Analysis Reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated | |
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