First Trustconfluence Small Fund Manager Performance Evaluation
| FOVCX Fund | USD 17.83 0.02 0.11% |
The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of 1.08, which means a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. First Trust/confluence returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, First Trust/confluence is expected to follow.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Good
Weak | Strong |
Compared to the overall equity markets, risk-adjusted returns on investments in First Trustconfluence Small are ranked lower than 12 (%) of all funds and portfolios of funds over the last 90 days. In spite of fairly weak fundamental indicators, First Trust/confluence showed solid returns over the last few months and may actually be approaching a breakup point.
...moreFirst |
First Trust/confluence Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape
If you would invest 1,297 in First Trustconfluence Small on October 29, 2025 and sell it today you would earn a total of 486.00 from holding First Trustconfluence Small or generate 37.47% return on investment over 90 days. First Trustconfluence Small is currently producing 0.5904% returns and takes up 3.7262% volatility of returns over 90 trading days. Put another way, 33% of traded mutual funds are less volatile than First, and 89% of all traded equity instruments are likely to generate higher returns over the next 90 trading days. Expected Return |
| Risk |
First Trust/confluence Current Valuation
Undervalued
Today
Please note that First Trust/confluence's price fluctuation is not too volatile at this time. At this time, the entity appears to be undervalued. First Trust/confluence shows a prevailing Real Value of $18.74 per share. The current price of the fund is $17.83. We determine the value of First Trust/confluence from reviewing fund fundamentals and technical indicators as well as its Probability Of Bankruptcy. In general, we advise acquiring undervalued mutual funds and dropping overvalued mutual funds since, at some point, mutual fund prices and their ongoing real values will submerge.
Since First Trust/confluence is currently traded on the exchange, buyers and sellers on that exchange determine the market value of First Mutual Fund. However, First Trust/confluence's intrinsic value may or may not be the same as its current market price, in which case there is an opportunity to profit from the mispricing, assuming the market price will eventually merge with its intrinsic value. | Historical | Market 17.83 | Real 18.74 | Hype 17.83 | Naive 16.75 |
The intrinsic value of First Trust/confluence's stock can be calculated using various methods such as discounted cash flow analysis, price-to-earnings ratio, or price-to-book ratio. That value may differ from its current market price, which is determined by supply and demand factors such as investor sentiment, market trends, news, and other external factors that may influence First Trust/confluence's stock price. It is important to note that the real value of any stock may change over time based on changes in the company's performance.
Estimating the potential upside or downside of First Trustconfluence Small helps investors to forecast how First mutual fund's addition to their portfolios will impact the overall performance. We also use other valuation drivers to help us estimate the true value of First Trust/confluence more accurately as focusing exclusively on First Trust/confluence's fundamentals will not take into account other important factors: First Trust/confluence Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price
The tendency of First Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 17.83 | 90 days | 17.83 | about 8.27 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of First Trust/confluence to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 8.27 (This First Trustconfluence Small probability density function shows the probability of First Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days horizon the mutual fund has the beta coefficient of 1.08 . This usually indicates First Trustconfluence Small market returns are sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, First Trust/confluence is expected to follow. Additionally First Trustconfluence Small has an alpha of 0.4059, implying that it can generate a 0.41 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). First Trust/confluence Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for First Trust/confluence
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Trust/confluence. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of First Trust/confluence's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
First Trust/confluence Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. First Trust/confluence is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the First Trust/confluence's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold First Trustconfluence Small, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of First Trust/confluence within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.41 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.08 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.17 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.12 |
First Trust/confluence Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of First Trust/confluence for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for First Trust/confluence can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| First Trust/confluence appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| First Trust/confluence generated five year return of -1.0% | |
| This fund retains 98.73% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities |
First Trust/confluence Fundamentals Growth
First Mutual Fund prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of First Trust/confluence, and First Trust/confluence fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on First Mutual Fund performance.
| Price To Earning | 27.21 X | |||
| Price To Book | 2.66 X | |||
| Price To Sales | 1.85 X | |||
| Total Asset | 33.3 M | |||
About First Trust/confluence Performance
Evaluating First Trust/confluence's performance through its fundamental ratios, provides valuable insights into its operational efficiency and profitability. For instance, if First Trust/confluence has a high ROA and ROE, it suggests that the company is efficiently using its assets and equity to generate substantial profits, making it an attractive investment. Conversely, if First Trust/confluence has a low ROA and ROE, it may indicate underlying issues in asset and equity management, signaling a need for operational improvements. Please also refer to our technical analysis and fundamental analysis pages.
The fund seeks to achieve its investment objective by investing, under normal market conditions, at least 80 percent of its net assets in equity securities of U.S. listed companies with small market capitalizations at the time of investment. Currently, a company will be considered to be a Small-Cap Company if its market capitalization at the time of purchase is within the range of companies in the Russell 2000 Index or the SP SmallCap 600 Index during the most recent 12-month period .Things to note about First Trust/confluence performance evaluation
Checking the ongoing alerts about First Trust/confluence for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Mutual Fund alerts and notifications screener for First Trust/confluence help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| First Trust/confluence appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| First Trust/confluence generated five year return of -1.0% | |
| This fund retains 98.73% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities |
- Analyzing First Trust/confluence's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
- Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether First Trust/confluence's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
- Examining First Trust/confluence's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
- Evaluating First Trust/confluence's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of First Trust/confluence's management team can help you assess the Mutual Fund's leadership.
- Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of First Trust/confluence's mutual fund. These opinions can provide insight into First Trust/confluence's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
Other Information on Investing in First Mutual Fund
First Trust/confluence financial ratios help investors to determine whether First Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in First with respect to the benefits of owning First Trust/confluence security.
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