Guild Holdings Co Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 16.28
| GHLD Stock | USD 13.79 0.14 1.03% |
Guild |
Guild Holdings Target Price Odds to finish over 16.28
The tendency of Guild Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 16.28 or more in 90 days |
| 13.79 | 90 days | 16.28 | about 23.75 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Guild Holdings to move over $ 16.28 or more in 90 days from now is about 23.75 (This Guild Holdings Co probability density function shows the probability of Guild Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Guild Holdings price to stay between its current price of $ 13.79 and $ 16.28 at the end of the 90-day period is about 69.67 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Guild Holdings Co has a beta of -0.31. This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Guild Holdings are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Guild Holdings Co is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Guild Holdings Co has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Guild Holdings Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Guild Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Guild Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Guild Holdings Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Guild Holdings is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Guild Holdings' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Guild Holdings Co, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Guild Holdings within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.28 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.31 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.12 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.19 |
Guild Holdings Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Guild Holdings for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Guild Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Guild Holdings generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Guild Holdings has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 718.13 M. Net Loss for the year was (39.01 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.21 B. | |
| Guild Holdings Co currently holds about 263.68 M in cash with (91.72 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 4.33. | |
| Guild Holdings has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 52.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: 3 US Growth Stocks With At Least 10 percent Insider Ownership - Simply Wall St |
Guild Holdings Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Guild Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Guild Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Guild Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 61 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 136.8 M |
Guild Holdings Technical Analysis
Guild Holdings' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Guild Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Guild Holdings Co. In general, you should focus on analyzing Guild Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Guild Holdings Predictive Forecast Models
Guild Holdings' time-series forecasting models is one of many Guild Holdings' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Guild Holdings' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Guild Holdings
Checking the ongoing alerts about Guild Holdings for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Guild Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Guild Holdings generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Guild Holdings has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 718.13 M. Net Loss for the year was (39.01 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.21 B. | |
| Guild Holdings Co currently holds about 263.68 M in cash with (91.72 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 4.33. | |
| Guild Holdings has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 52.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: 3 US Growth Stocks With At Least 10 percent Insider Ownership - Simply Wall St |
Check out Guild Holdings Backtesting, Guild Holdings Valuation, Guild Holdings Correlation, Guild Holdings Hype Analysis, Guild Holdings Volatility, Guild Holdings History as well as Guild Holdings Performance. You can also try the Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Guild Holdings. If investors know Guild will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Guild Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (1.54) | Revenue Per Share 13.555 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.30) | Return On Assets (0) | Return On Equity (0.08) |
The market value of Guild Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Guild that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Guild Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Guild Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Guild Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Guild Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Guild Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Guild Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Guild Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.