Graphic Packaging Holding Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 28.83
| GPK Stock | USD 29.60 0.32 1.09% |
Graphic |
Graphic Packaging Target Price Odds to finish below 28.83
The tendency of Graphic Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 28.83 or more in 90 days |
| 29.60 | 90 days | 28.83 | about 27.87 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Graphic Packaging to drop to $ 28.83 or more in 90 days from now is about 27.87 (This Graphic Packaging Holding probability density function shows the probability of Graphic Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Graphic Packaging Holding price to stay between $ 28.83 and its current price of $29.6 at the end of the 90-day period is about 47.13 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.13 . This usually indicates Graphic Packaging Holding market returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Graphic Packaging is expected to follow. Additionally Graphic Packaging Holding has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Graphic Packaging Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Graphic Packaging
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Graphic Packaging Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Graphic Packaging Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Graphic Packaging is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Graphic Packaging's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Graphic Packaging Holding, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Graphic Packaging within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.12 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.13 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.61 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.07 |
Graphic Packaging Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Graphic Packaging for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Graphic Packaging Holding can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Graphic Packaging is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Graphic Packaging has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Packaging Co. of America Sets New 1-Year High Whats Next |
Graphic Packaging Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Graphic Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Graphic Packaging's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Graphic Packaging's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 306.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 162 M |
Graphic Packaging Technical Analysis
Graphic Packaging's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Graphic Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Graphic Packaging Holding. In general, you should focus on analyzing Graphic Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Graphic Packaging Predictive Forecast Models
Graphic Packaging's time-series forecasting models is one of many Graphic Packaging's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Graphic Packaging's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Graphic Packaging Holding
Checking the ongoing alerts about Graphic Packaging for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Graphic Packaging Holding help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Graphic Packaging is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Graphic Packaging has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Packaging Co. of America Sets New 1-Year High Whats Next |
Check out Graphic Packaging Backtesting, Graphic Packaging Valuation, Graphic Packaging Correlation, Graphic Packaging Hype Analysis, Graphic Packaging Volatility, Graphic Packaging History as well as Graphic Packaging Performance. You can also try the Price Exposure Probability module to analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets.
Is Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Graphic Packaging. If investors know Graphic will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Graphic Packaging listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0) | Dividend Share 0.4 | Earnings Share 2.34 | Revenue Per Share 29.325 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.06) |
The market value of Graphic Packaging Holding is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Graphic that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Graphic Packaging's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Graphic Packaging's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Graphic Packaging's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Graphic Packaging's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Graphic Packaging's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Graphic Packaging is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Graphic Packaging's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.