Warrior Met Coal Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 37.06
| HCC Stock | USD 70.71 2.09 2.87% |
Warrior |
Warrior Met Target Price Odds to finish below 37.06
The tendency of Warrior Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 37.06 or more in 90 days |
| 70.71 | 90 days | 37.06 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Warrior Met to drop to $ 37.06 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Warrior Met Coal probability density function shows the probability of Warrior Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Warrior Met Coal price to stay between $ 37.06 and its current price of $70.71 at the end of the 90-day period is under 95 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.21 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Warrior Met will likely underperform. Additionally Warrior Met Coal has an alpha of 0.1128, implying that it can generate a 0.11 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Warrior Met Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Warrior Met
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Warrior Met Coal. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Warrior Met's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Warrior Met Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Warrior Met is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Warrior Met's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Warrior Met Coal, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Warrior Met within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.11 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.21 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 5.66 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.08 |
Warrior Met Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Warrior Met for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Warrior Met Coal can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Over 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 12th of November 2024 Warrior Met paid $ 0.08 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Warrior Met Coal Inc Stock Price Up 4.04 percent on Nov 21 |
Warrior Met Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Warrior Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Warrior Met's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Warrior Met's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 52 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 747.2 M |
Warrior Met Technical Analysis
Warrior Met's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Warrior Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Warrior Met Coal. In general, you should focus on analyzing Warrior Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Warrior Met Predictive Forecast Models
Warrior Met's time-series forecasting models is one of many Warrior Met's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Warrior Met's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Warrior Met Coal
Checking the ongoing alerts about Warrior Met for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Warrior Met Coal help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Over 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 12th of November 2024 Warrior Met paid $ 0.08 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Warrior Met Coal Inc Stock Price Up 4.04 percent on Nov 21 |
Check out Warrior Met Backtesting, Warrior Met Valuation, Warrior Met Correlation, Warrior Met Hype Analysis, Warrior Met Volatility, Warrior Met History as well as Warrior Met Performance. You can also try the Sync Your Broker module to sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors..
Is Metals & Mining space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Warrior Met. If investors know Warrior will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Warrior Met listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.51) | Dividend Share 0.31 | Earnings Share 7.26 | Revenue Per Share 30.554 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.23) |
The market value of Warrior Met Coal is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Warrior that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Warrior Met's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Warrior Met's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Warrior Met's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Warrior Met's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Warrior Met's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Warrior Met is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Warrior Met's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.