Warrior Met Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

HCC Stock  USD 88.17  0.49  0.55%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Warrior Met Coal on the next trading day is expected to be 89.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.59 and the sum of the absolute errors of 157.92. Warrior Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Warrior Met stock prices and determine the direction of Warrior Met Coal's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Warrior Met's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength momentum indicator of Warrior Met's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Warrior Met's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Warrior Met Coal, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Warrior Met's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.13)
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
(0.16)
EPS Estimate Current Year
1.3296
EPS Estimate Next Year
7.2599
Wall Street Target Price
89.1667
Using Warrior Met hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Warrior Met Coal from the perspective of Warrior Met response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Warrior Met using Warrior Met's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Warrior using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Warrior Met's stock price.

Warrior Met Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Warrior Met's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Warrior. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Warrior Met stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA
59.1448
Short Percent
0.1263
Short Ratio
7.32
Shares Short Prior Month
5.3 M
50 Day MA
77.9274

Warrior Met Coal Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Warrior Met's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Warrior. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Warrior can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Warrior Met Coal. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Warrior Met's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Warrior Met.

Warrior Met Implied Volatility

    
  0.51  
Warrior Met's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Warrior Met Coal stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Warrior Met's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Warrior Met stock will not fluctuate a lot when Warrior Met's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Warrior Met Coal on the next trading day is expected to be 89.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.59 and the sum of the absolute errors of 157.92.

Warrior Met after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 88.17  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Warrior Met to cross-verify your projections.
At present, Warrior Met's Asset Turnover is projected to increase slightly based on the last few years of reporting. . As of January 2, 2026, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to decline to about 41.7 M. In addition to that, Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is expected to decline to about 283.7 M.

Open Interest Against 2026-02-20 Warrior Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Warrior Met's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Warrior Met's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Warrior Met stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Warrior Met's open interest, investors have to compare it to Warrior Met's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Warrior Met is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Warrior. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.

Warrior Met Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Warrior price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Warrior using various technical indicators. When you analyze Warrior charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

Warrior Met Cash Forecast

Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Warrior Met's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
 
Cash  
First Reported
2015-12-31
Previous Quarter
383.3 M
Current Value
336.3 M
Quarterly Volatility
259.6 M
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
A naive forecasting model for Warrior Met is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Warrior Met Coal value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Warrior Met Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 3rd of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Warrior Met Coal on the next trading day is expected to be 89.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.59, mean absolute percentage error of 11.42, and the sum of the absolute errors of 157.92.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Warrior Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Warrior Met's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Warrior Met Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Warrior MetWarrior Met Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Warrior Met Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Warrior Met's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Warrior Met's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 85.62 and 93.10, respectively. We have considered Warrior Met's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
88.17
89.36
Expected Value
93.10
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Warrior Met stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Warrior Met stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.5462
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation2.5889
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0354
SAESum of the absolute errors157.9249
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Warrior Met Coal. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Warrior Met. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Warrior Met

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Warrior Met Coal. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Warrior Met's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
84.4688.1791.88
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
79.3595.0898.79
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
76.5684.2691.96
Details
7 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
81.1489.1798.98
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Warrior Met

For every potential investor in Warrior, whether a beginner or expert, Warrior Met's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Warrior Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Warrior. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Warrior Met's price trends.

Warrior Met Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Warrior Met stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Warrior Met could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Warrior Met by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Warrior Met Coal Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Warrior Met's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Warrior Met's current price.

Warrior Met Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Warrior Met stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Warrior Met shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Warrior Met stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Warrior Met Coal entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Warrior Met Risk Indicators

The analysis of Warrior Met's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Warrior Met's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting warrior stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
When determining whether Warrior Met Coal offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Warrior Met's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Warrior Met Coal Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Warrior Met Coal Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Warrior Met to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.
Is Metals & Mining space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Warrior Met. If investors know Warrior will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Warrior Met listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.13)
Dividend Share
0.32
Earnings Share
0.66
Revenue Per Share
23.288
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.001
The market value of Warrior Met Coal is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Warrior that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Warrior Met's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Warrior Met's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Warrior Met's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Warrior Met's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Warrior Met's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Warrior Met is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Warrior Met's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.