Warrior Met Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| HCC Stock | USD 98.37 0.04 0.04% |
Warrior Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Warrior Met stock prices and determine the direction of Warrior Met Coal's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Warrior Met's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength momentum indicator of Warrior Met's stock price is about 68. This usually indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors at the present time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Warrior, making its price go up or down. Momentum 68
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.13) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.16) | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.1876 | EPS Estimate Next Year 7.7777 | Wall Street Target Price 97.5 |
Using Warrior Met hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Warrior Met Coal from the perspective of Warrior Met response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Warrior Met using Warrior Met's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Warrior using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Warrior Met's stock price.
Warrior Met Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Warrior Met's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Warrior. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Warrior Met stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 62.9036 | Short Percent 0.1166 | Short Ratio 6.38 | Shares Short Prior Month 4.9 M | 50 Day MA 86.5482 |
Warrior Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Warrior Met Coal on the next trading day is expected to be 98.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.28 and the sum of the absolute errors of 139.15.Warrior Met Coal Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Warrior Met's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Warrior. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Warrior can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Warrior Met Coal. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Warrior Met's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Warrior Met.
Warrior Met Implied Volatility | 0.67 |
Warrior Met's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Warrior Met Coal stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Warrior Met's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Warrior Met stock will not fluctuate a lot when Warrior Met's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Warrior Met Coal on the next trading day is expected to be 98.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.28 and the sum of the absolute errors of 139.15. Warrior Met after-hype prediction price | USD 99.62 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Warrior Met to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Warrior contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Warrior Met Coal will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0419% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Warrior Met trading at USD 98.37, that is roughly USD 0.0412 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Warrior Met's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Warrior Met Coal options at the current volatility level of 0.67%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Warrior Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Warrior Met's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Warrior Met's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Warrior Met stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Warrior Met's open interest, investors have to compare it to Warrior Met's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Warrior Met is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Warrior. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Warrior Met Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Warrior price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Warrior using various technical indicators. When you analyze Warrior charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Warrior Met Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Warrior Met's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2015-12-31 | Previous Quarter 383.3 M | Current Value 336.3 M | Quarterly Volatility 259.6 M |
Warrior Met Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Warrior Met Coal on the next trading day is expected to be 98.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.28, mean absolute percentage error of 8.82, and the sum of the absolute errors of 139.15.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Warrior Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Warrior Met's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Warrior Met Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Warrior Met | Warrior Met Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Warrior Met Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Warrior Met's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Warrior Met's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 95.17 and 102.42, respectively. We have considered Warrior Met's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Warrior Met stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Warrior Met stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.2876 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.2811 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0283 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 139.1457 |
Predictive Modules for Warrior Met
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Warrior Met Coal. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Warrior Met's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Warrior Met After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Warrior Met at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Warrior Met or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Warrior Met, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Warrior Met Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Warrior Met's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Warrior Met's historical news coverage. Warrior Met's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 95.99 and 103.25, respectively. We have considered Warrior Met's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Warrior Met is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Warrior Met Coal is based on 3 months time horizon.
Warrior Met Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Warrior Met is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Warrior Met backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Warrior Met, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.76 | 3.63 | 1.25 | 0.24 | 13 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 13 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
98.37 | 99.62 | 1.27 |
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Warrior Met Hype Timeline
On the 26th of January Warrior Met Coal is traded for 98.37. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 1.25, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.24. Warrior is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 99.62 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 1.27%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.76%. The volatility of related hype on Warrior Met is about 1163.46%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 98.13. The company reported the last year's revenue of 1.53 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 250.6 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 244.25 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 13 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Warrior Met to cross-verify your projections.Warrior Met Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Warrior Met's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Warrior Met's future price movements. Getting to know how Warrior Met's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Warrior Met may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BTU | Peabody Energy Corp | 0.1 | 9 per month | 2.65 | 0.07 | 5.97 | (4.16) | 15.25 | |
| ARLP | Alliance Resource Partners | 1.65 | 3 per month | 1.33 | (0.02) | 1.93 | (2.42) | 7.01 | |
| CNR | Core Natural Resources | (0.30) | 8 per month | 2.42 | 0.03 | 4.98 | (3.37) | 17.65 | |
| SEI | Solaris Energy Infrastructure | (1.56) | 9 per month | 4.39 | 0.02 | 6.50 | (5.71) | 21.92 | |
| CVI | CVR Energy | (1.01) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 4.40 | (4.12) | 14.85 | |
| RIG | Transocean | 0.17 | 8 per month | 1.88 | 0.19 | 5.53 | (3.37) | 20.08 | |
| ENPH | Enphase Energy | (0.37) | 9 per month | 3.57 | 0.02 | 5.30 | (4.01) | 17.09 | |
| AMR | Alpha Metallurgical Resources | 0.28 | 33 per month | 2.29 | 0.16 | 6.14 | (3.52) | 15.14 | |
| MUR | Murphy Oil | 0.79 | 6 per month | 2.61 | 0.06 | 4.80 | (3.78) | 19.80 | |
| GPOR | Gulfport Energy Operating | (2.87) | 15 per month | 2.38 | 0.01 | 3.11 | (3.84) | 13.69 |
Other Forecasting Options for Warrior Met
For every potential investor in Warrior, whether a beginner or expert, Warrior Met's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Warrior Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Warrior. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Warrior Met's price trends.Warrior Met Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Warrior Met stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Warrior Met could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Warrior Met by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Warrior Met Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Warrior Met stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Warrior Met shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Warrior Met stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Warrior Met Coal entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Warrior Met Risk Indicators
The analysis of Warrior Met's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Warrior Met's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting warrior stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.96 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.78 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.59 | |||
| Variance | 12.86 | |||
| Downside Variance | 6.02 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.18 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.12) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Warrior Met
The number of cover stories for Warrior Met depends on current market conditions and Warrior Met's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Warrior Met is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Warrior Met's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Warrior Met Short Properties
Warrior Met's future price predictability will typically decrease when Warrior Met's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Warrior Met Coal often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Warrior Met's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Warrior Met's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 52.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 506.2 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Warrior Met to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Dashboard module to portfolio dashboard that provides centralized access to all your investments.
Is Metals & Mining space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Warrior Met. If investors know Warrior will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Warrior Met listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.13) | Dividend Share 0.32 | Earnings Share 0.66 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.001 |
The market value of Warrior Met Coal is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Warrior that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Warrior Met's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Warrior Met's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Warrior Met's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Warrior Met's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Warrior Met's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Warrior Met is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Warrior Met's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.