Hercules Capital Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 16.32
| HTGC Stock | USD 18.76 0.23 1.24% |
Hercules |
Hercules Capital Target Price Odds to finish below 16.32
The tendency of Hercules Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 16.32 or more in 90 days |
| 18.76 | 90 days | 16.32 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Hercules Capital to drop to $ 16.32 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Hercules Capital probability density function shows the probability of Hercules Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Hercules Capital price to stay between $ 16.32 and its current price of $18.76 at the end of the 90-day period is about 27.15 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Hercules Capital has a beta of 0.69. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Hercules Capital average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Hercules Capital will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Hercules Capital has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Hercules Capital Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Hercules Capital
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hercules Capital. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Hercules Capital Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Hercules Capital is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Hercules Capital's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Hercules Capital, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Hercules Capital within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.02 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.69 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.51 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.05 |
Hercules Capital Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Hercules Capital for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Hercules Capital can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Hercules Capital has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| On 20th of November 2024 Hercules Capital paid $ 0.48 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from mining-journal.com: Hercules wrestles with porphyry discovery |
Hercules Capital Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Hercules Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Hercules Capital's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Hercules Capital's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 144.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 98.9 M |
Hercules Capital Technical Analysis
Hercules Capital's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Hercules Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Hercules Capital. In general, you should focus on analyzing Hercules Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Hercules Capital Predictive Forecast Models
Hercules Capital's time-series forecasting models is one of many Hercules Capital's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Hercules Capital's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Hercules Capital
Checking the ongoing alerts about Hercules Capital for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Hercules Capital help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Hercules Capital has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| On 20th of November 2024 Hercules Capital paid $ 0.48 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from mining-journal.com: Hercules wrestles with porphyry discovery |
Check out Hercules Capital Backtesting, Hercules Capital Valuation, Hercules Capital Correlation, Hercules Capital Hype Analysis, Hercules Capital Volatility, Hercules Capital History as well as Hercules Capital Performance. For information on how to trade Hercules Stock refer to our How to Trade Hercules Stock guide.You can also try the Price Exposure Probability module to analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets.
Is Asset Management & Custody Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Hercules Capital. If investors know Hercules will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Hercules Capital listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.261 | Dividend Share 1.6 | Earnings Share 2.04 | Revenue Per Share 3.13 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.073 |
The market value of Hercules Capital is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Hercules that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Hercules Capital's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Hercules Capital's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Hercules Capital's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Hercules Capital's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Hercules Capital's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Hercules Capital is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Hercules Capital's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.