Hercules Capital Stock Market Outlook
| HTGC Stock | USD 15.58 1.02 6.14% |
About 54% of Hercules Capital's shareholders are presently thinking to get in. The analysis of overall sentiment of trading Hercules Capital stock suggests that some investors are interested at this time. The current market sentiment, together with Hercules Capital's historical and current headlines, can help investors time the market. In addition, many technical investors use Hercules Capital stock news signals to limit their universe of possible portfolio assets.
Comfort Level 54
Impartial
Panic | Confidence |
Today, several news technology companies offer sentiment data to assist traders in manufacturing news sentiment indicators for investment decisions. We partner with these technology firms in helping retail investors build forecasting models that use Hercules Capital's input sentiment indicators derived from textual data and news published on major financial information outlets and social sites. These indicators can be used to analyze time-dependent numerical information representing public perception toward Hercules Capital.
News SentimentBullish | Hype SentimentBearish | Insider SentimentAcquiring |
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your way above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Hercules Capital is 'Hold'. Macroaxis provides Hercules Capital buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding HTGC positions.
Execute Hercules Capital Advice
The Hercules recommendation should be used to complement the investment advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Hercules Capital. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Hercules Capital or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Hercules Capital's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Hold
Market Performance | Weakest | Details | |
Volatility | Very steady | Details | |
Hype Condition | Low key | Details | |
Current Valuation | Undervalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | High | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Follows the market closely | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Impartial | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Frail | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Possible Manipulator | Details |
For the selected time horizon Hercules Capital has a Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.08), Jensen Alpha of (0.20), Total Risk Alpha of (0.27) and Treynor Ratio of (0.30)Our advice tool can cross-verify current analyst consensus on Hercules Capital and to analyze the company potential to grow in the current economic cycle. To make sure Hercules Capital is not overpriced, please check out all Hercules Capital fundamentals, including its price to book, cash and equivalents, cash flow from operations, as well as the relationship between the gross profit and debt to equity . Given that Hercules Capital has a number of shares shorted of 5.32 M, we strongly advise you to confirm Hercules Capital market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your regular risk tolerance and investing horizon.
Hercules Capital Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| Hercules Capital generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Hercules Capital has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 547.1 M. Net Loss for the year was (137.34 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 532.49 M. | |
| Hercules Capital currently holds about 115.31 M in cash with (425.8 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.92. | |
| Hercules Capital has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Hercules Capital Q4 Earnings Call Highlights |
Hercules Capital Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Hercules Capital's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Hercules Capital's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Hercules Capital daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Hercules Capital price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Hercules Capital returns is essential to provide solid investment analysis for Hercules Capital.
| Mean Return | -0.15 | Value At Risk | -3.03 | Potential Upside | 1.67 | Standard Deviation | 1.46 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Hercules Capital historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Hercules Stock Institutional Investors
| Shares | Melia Wealth Llc | 2025-06-30 | 793.6 K | Royal Bank Of Canada | 2025-06-30 | 788.4 K | Advisors Capital Management, Llc | 2025-06-30 | 754.5 K | Wells Fargo & Co | 2025-06-30 | 753.7 K | Muzinich & Co Inc | 2025-06-30 | 738.2 K | Citadel Advisors Llc | 2025-06-30 | 664.2 K | Voloridge Investment Management, Llc | 2025-06-30 | 630.6 K | Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Group Inc | 2025-06-30 | 621.7 K | Tectonic Advisors Llc | 2025-06-30 | 621.6 K | Van Eck Associates Corporation | 2025-06-30 | 3.6 M | Sound Income Strategies | 2025-06-30 | 2.9 M |
Hercules Capital Cash Flow Accounts
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | ||
| Change In Cash | (101.4M) | (110.4M) | 90.1M | 408K | (57.0M) | (54.1M) | |
| Free Cash Flow | 128.5M | (424.9M) | 67.4M | (118.8M) | (425.8M) | (404.5M) | |
| Depreciation | 317K | 204K | 190K | 466K | (38.8M) | (36.9M) | |
| Other Non Cash Items | (59.2M) | (521.7M) | (252.2M) | (165.5M) | (264.4M) | (277.7M) | |
| Capital Expenditures | 106K | 114K | 887K | 705K | 89K | 84.6K | |
| Net Income | 174.2M | 102.1M | 337.5M | 31.5M | (137.3M) | (130.5M) | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 136.3M | 25.9M | 116.0M | 116.4M | 59.5M | 104.6M | |
| Dividends Paid | 175.5M | 245.1M | (273.7M) | (303.5M) | 326.0M | 342.3M | |
| Change To Netincome | (424.5M) | (31.4M) | (66.3M) | 10.8M | 9.7M | 10.2M | |
| Net Borrowings | (50.1M) | 343.0M | (24M) | 213.6M | 511.5M | 537.1M | |
| Investments | (106K) | (114K) | (418K) | (705K) | (634.5K) | (602.8K) |
Hercules Capital Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Hercules Capital or Capital Markets sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Hercules Capital's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Hercules stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.2 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.55 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.48 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.15 |
Hercules Capital Volatility Alert
Hercules Capital exhibits very low volatility with skewness of -1.57 and kurtosis of 4.38. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Hercules Capital's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Hercules Capital's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Hercules Capital Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Hercules Capital's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Hercules Capital's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Hercules Capital and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Hercules Capital or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Hercules Capital's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Hercules Capital by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Hercules Capital to competition |
| Fundamentals | Hercules Capital | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | 0.16 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.0661 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | 0.64 % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.84 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 5.11 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 183.7 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 1.71 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 28.76 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 5.32 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 5.16 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 1.29 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 5.37 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 547.1 M | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 532.49 M | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 365.43 M | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | (137.34 M) | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 115.31 M | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 0.92 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 16.27 M | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 1.13 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 3.65 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 12.13 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | (425.8 M) | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 5.08 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 1.85 X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 0.52 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 20.31 | |
| Number Of Employees | 100 | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 0.78 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 2.86 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 4.58 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | 101.15 M | 9.33 B |
| Annual Yield | 0.12 % |
Note: Disposition of 50081 shares by Scott Bluestein of Hercules Capital at 18.59 subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
Hercules Capital Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Hercules . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
Hercules Capital Target Price Consensus
Hercules target price is determined by taking all analyst projections and averaging them out. There is no one specific way to measure analysts' performance other than comparing it to past results via a very sophisticated attribution analysis. Hercules Capital's target price projections below should be used in combination with other traditional price prediction techniques such as stock price forecasting, investor sentiment analysis, technical analysis, earnings estimate, and various momentum models.
| 9 | Buy |
Most Hercules analysts issue ratings four times a year, at intervals of three months. Ratings are usually accompanied by a target price to help potential investors understand Hercules stock's fair price compared to its market value. Analysts arrive at stock ratings after researching the public financial statements of Hercules Capital, talking to its executives and customers, or listening to those companies' conference calls.
Macroaxis Advice Exposure ValuationHercules Capital Target Price Projection
Hercules Capital's current and average target prices are 15.58 and 20.31, respectively. The current price of Hercules Capital is the price at which Hercules Capital is currently trading. On the other hand, Hercules Capital's target price is what analysts think the stock is worth. The more significant the discrepancy between the two prices, the more it stimulates investors to act.Current Price
Hercules Capital Market Quote on 17th of February 2026
Target Price
Analyst Consensus On Hercules Capital Target Price
Hercules Capital Analyst Ratings
Hercules Capital's analyst stock recommendations are determined by taking an average estimate of all analysts we track and classifying them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Strong Sell, or Sell. Ratings generally communicate what analysts sense about Hercules Capital stock, and they use a lot of effort and time to analyze it and arrive at a rating. That suggests that analyst recommendations are the outcome of an objective and thorough examination of Hercules Capital's financials, market performance, and future outlook by experienced professionals. Hercules Capital's historical ratings below, therefore, can serve as a valuable tool for investors.Analyst Consensus Breakdown
Average Consensus Estimates
About Hercules Capital Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Hercules Capital? Buying financial instruments such as Hercules Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios
In addition to having Hercules Capital in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.Did You Try This Idea?
Run Data Storage Thematic Idea Now
Data Storage
Companies making data storages or providing data storage services. The Data Storage theme has 43 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Data Storage Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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Check out Hercules Capital Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. For information on how to trade Hercules Stock refer to our How to Trade Hercules Stock guide.You can also try the Price Exposure Probability module to analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets.
Will Asset Management & Custody Banks sector continue expanding? Could Hercules diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Hercules Capital. Market participants price Hercules higher when confident in its future expansion prospects. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Hercules Capital data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.293 | Earnings Share 1.85 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.128 | Return On Assets |
Investors evaluate Hercules Capital using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Hercules Capital's intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Hercules Capital's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Hercules Capital's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Hercules Capital is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Conversely, Hercules Capital's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.