Jerónimo Martins (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 12.94
| JEM Stock | EUR 18.34 0.03 0.16% |
Jerónimo |
Jerónimo Martins Target Price Odds to finish below 12.94
The tendency of Jerónimo Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 12.94 or more in 90 days |
| 18.34 | 90 days | 12.94 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Jerónimo Martins to drop to € 12.94 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Jernimo Martins SGPS probability density function shows the probability of Jerónimo Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Jernimo Martins SGPS price to stay between € 12.94 and its current price of €18.34 at the end of the 90-day period is about 91.95 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Jernimo Martins SGPS has a beta of -0.25. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Jerónimo Martins are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Jernimo Martins SGPS is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Jernimo Martins SGPS has an alpha of 0.198, implying that it can generate a 0.2 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Jerónimo Martins Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Jerónimo Martins
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Jernimo Martins SGPS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Jerónimo Martins Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Jerónimo Martins is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Jerónimo Martins' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Jernimo Martins SGPS, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Jerónimo Martins within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.20 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.25 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.72 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.02 |
Jerónimo Martins Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Jerónimo Martins for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Jernimo Martins SGPS can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Jernimo Martins SGPS has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Jernimo Martins SGPS has accumulated 347 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 154.4, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Jernimo Martins SGPS has a current ratio of 0.39, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Jerónimo Martins until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Jerónimo Martins' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Jernimo Martins SGPS sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Jerónimo to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Jerónimo Martins' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 56.0% of Jerónimo Martins shares are held by company insiders |
Jerónimo Martins Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Jerónimo Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Jerónimo Martins' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Jerónimo Martins' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 628.4 M |
Jerónimo Martins Technical Analysis
Jerónimo Martins' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Jerónimo Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Jernimo Martins SGPS. In general, you should focus on analyzing Jerónimo Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Jerónimo Martins Predictive Forecast Models
Jerónimo Martins' time-series forecasting models is one of many Jerónimo Martins' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Jerónimo Martins' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Jernimo Martins SGPS
Checking the ongoing alerts about Jerónimo Martins for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Jernimo Martins SGPS help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Jernimo Martins SGPS has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Jernimo Martins SGPS has accumulated 347 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 154.4, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Jernimo Martins SGPS has a current ratio of 0.39, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Jerónimo Martins until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Jerónimo Martins' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Jernimo Martins SGPS sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Jerónimo to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Jerónimo Martins' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 56.0% of Jerónimo Martins shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Jerónimo Stock
Jerónimo Martins financial ratios help investors to determine whether Jerónimo Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Jerónimo with respect to the benefits of owning Jerónimo Martins security.