Aurora Mobile Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 3.5
| JG Stock | USD 7.01 1.21 14.72% |
Aurora |
Aurora Mobile Target Price Odds to finish below 3.5
The tendency of Aurora Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 3.50 or more in 90 days |
| 7.01 | 90 days | 3.50 | nearly 4.88 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Aurora Mobile to drop to $ 3.50 or more in 90 days from now is nearly 4.88 (This Aurora Mobile probability density function shows the probability of Aurora Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Aurora Mobile price to stay between $ 3.50 and its current price of $7.01 at the end of the 90-day period is about 75.89 .
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon Aurora Mobile has a beta of 0.0228. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Aurora Mobile average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Aurora Mobile will be expected to be much smaller as well. Moreover Aurora Mobile has an alpha of 1.4031, implying that it can generate a 1.4 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Aurora Mobile Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Aurora Mobile
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aurora Mobile. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Aurora Mobile Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Aurora Mobile is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Aurora Mobile's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Aurora Mobile, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Aurora Mobile within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 1.40 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.02 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.39 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.13 |
Aurora Mobile Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Aurora Mobile for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Aurora Mobile can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Aurora Mobile is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Aurora Mobile appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Aurora Mobile reports 4.64 M of total liabilities with total debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.73, which is normal for its line of buisiness. Aurora Mobile has a current ratio of 0.78, implying that it has not enough working capital to pay out debt commitments in time. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for Aurora to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| The entity generated the yearly revenue of 290.23 M. Annual Net Loss to common stockholders was (62.67 M) with gross profit of 225.76 M. | |
| Aurora Mobile reports about 111.84 M in cash with (17.91 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.94. | |
| Aurora Mobile has a very weak financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Aurora Continues to Rise After Winning AI Innovation Award |
Aurora Mobile Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Aurora Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Aurora Mobile's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aurora Mobile's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 114.5 M |
Aurora Mobile Technical Analysis
Aurora Mobile's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Aurora Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Aurora Mobile. In general, you should focus on analyzing Aurora Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Aurora Mobile Predictive Forecast Models
Aurora Mobile's time-series forecasting models is one of many Aurora Mobile's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Aurora Mobile's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Aurora Mobile
Checking the ongoing alerts about Aurora Mobile for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Aurora Mobile help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Aurora Mobile is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Aurora Mobile appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Aurora Mobile reports 4.64 M of total liabilities with total debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.73, which is normal for its line of buisiness. Aurora Mobile has a current ratio of 0.78, implying that it has not enough working capital to pay out debt commitments in time. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for Aurora to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| The entity generated the yearly revenue of 290.23 M. Annual Net Loss to common stockholders was (62.67 M) with gross profit of 225.76 M. | |
| Aurora Mobile reports about 111.84 M in cash with (17.91 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.94. | |
| Aurora Mobile has a very weak financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Aurora Continues to Rise After Winning AI Innovation Award |
Check out Aurora Mobile Backtesting, Aurora Mobile Valuation, Aurora Mobile Correlation, Aurora Mobile Hype Analysis, Aurora Mobile Volatility, Aurora Mobile History as well as Aurora Mobile Performance. For more detail on how to invest in Aurora Stock please use our How to Invest in Aurora Mobile guide.You can also try the Bonds Directory module to find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies.
Is Application Software space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aurora Mobile. If investors know Aurora will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Aurora Mobile listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.55) | Revenue Per Share 49.496 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.083 | Return On Assets (0.05) | Return On Equity (0.24) |
The market value of Aurora Mobile is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aurora that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aurora Mobile's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aurora Mobile's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aurora Mobile's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aurora Mobile's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aurora Mobile's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Aurora Mobile is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aurora Mobile's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.