Aurora Mobile Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| JG Stock | USD 8.22 0.82 11.08% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Aurora Mobile on the next trading day is expected to be 8.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40 and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.21. Aurora Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Aurora Mobile's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Aurora |
Aurora Mobile Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 22nd of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Aurora Mobile on the next trading day is expected to be 8.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40, mean absolute percentage error of 0.38, and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.21.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aurora Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aurora Mobile's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Aurora Mobile Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Aurora Mobile | Aurora Mobile Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Aurora Mobile Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Aurora Mobile's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Aurora Mobile's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.08 and 17.96, respectively. We have considered Aurora Mobile's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aurora Mobile stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aurora Mobile stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.3004 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0755 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4035 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0633 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 24.21 |
Predictive Modules for Aurora Mobile
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aurora Mobile. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Aurora Mobile
For every potential investor in Aurora, whether a beginner or expert, Aurora Mobile's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Aurora Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Aurora. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Aurora Mobile's price trends.View Aurora Mobile Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Aurora Mobile Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Aurora Mobile's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Aurora Mobile's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Aurora Mobile Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Aurora Mobile stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Aurora Mobile shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Aurora Mobile stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Aurora Mobile entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Aurora Mobile Risk Indicators
The analysis of Aurora Mobile's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aurora Mobile's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aurora stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 6.13 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 6.45 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 9.57 | |||
| Variance | 91.58 | |||
| Downside Variance | 61.11 | |||
| Semi Variance | 41.57 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (6.88) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aurora Mobile to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Aurora Stock please use our How to Invest in Aurora Mobile guide.You can also try the Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.
Is Application Software space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aurora Mobile. If investors know Aurora will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Aurora Mobile listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.55) | Revenue Per Share 49.496 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.083 | Return On Assets (0.05) | Return On Equity (0.24) |
The market value of Aurora Mobile is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aurora that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aurora Mobile's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aurora Mobile's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aurora Mobile's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aurora Mobile's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aurora Mobile's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Aurora Mobile is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aurora Mobile's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.