Lumentum Holdings (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 567.20

LU2 Stock  EUR 567.20  2.60  0.46%   
Lumentum Holdings' future price is the expected price of Lumentum Holdings instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Lumentum Holdings performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Lumentum Holdings Analysis, Lumentum Holdings Valuation, Lumentum Holdings Correlation, Lumentum Holdings Hype Analysis, Lumentum Holdings Volatility, Lumentum Holdings Price History as well as Lumentum Holdings Performance.
For more detail on how to invest in Lumentum Stock please use our How to Invest in Lumentum Holdings guide.
  
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Lumentum Holdings Target Price Odds to finish over 567.20

The tendency of Lumentum Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 567.20 90 days 567.20 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Lumentum Holdings to move above the current price in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Lumentum Holdings probability density function shows the probability of Lumentum Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Lumentum Holdings has a beta of 0.9. This indicates Lumentum Holdings market returns are reactive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Lumentum Holdings is expected to follow. Moreover Lumentum Holdings has an alpha of 1.5395, implying that it can generate a 1.54 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Lumentum Holdings Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Lumentum Holdings

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lumentum Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
510.48576.48581.93
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
487.15492.60623.92
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
546.00551.45556.90
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.471.541.61
Details

Lumentum Holdings Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Lumentum Holdings is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Lumentum Holdings' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Lumentum Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Lumentum Holdings within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
1.54
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.90
σ
Overall volatility
89.02
Ir
Information ratio 0.26

Lumentum Holdings Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Lumentum Holdings for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Lumentum Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Lumentum Holdings is way too risky over 90 days horizon
Lumentum Holdings appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from news.google.com: Lumentum vs. Amtech Which Semiconductor Stock is the Better Buy - Zacks Investment Research

Lumentum Holdings Technical Analysis

Lumentum Holdings' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Lumentum Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Lumentum Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing Lumentum Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Lumentum Holdings Predictive Forecast Models

Lumentum Holdings' time-series forecasting models is one of many Lumentum Holdings' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Lumentum Holdings' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Lumentum Holdings

Checking the ongoing alerts about Lumentum Holdings for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Lumentum Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Lumentum Holdings is way too risky over 90 days horizon
Lumentum Holdings appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from news.google.com: Lumentum vs. Amtech Which Semiconductor Stock is the Better Buy - Zacks Investment Research
When determining whether Lumentum Holdings is a strong investment it is important to analyze Lumentum Holdings' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Lumentum Holdings' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Lumentum Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Lumentum Holdings Analysis, Lumentum Holdings Valuation, Lumentum Holdings Correlation, Lumentum Holdings Hype Analysis, Lumentum Holdings Volatility, Lumentum Holdings Price History as well as Lumentum Holdings Performance.
For more detail on how to invest in Lumentum Stock please use our How to Invest in Lumentum Holdings guide.
You can also try the Idea Analyzer module to analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas.
Understanding that Lumentum Holdings' value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Lumentum Holdings represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. In contrast, Lumentum Holdings' trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.