Marathon Oil (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 161.85
| M1RO34 Stock | BRL 170.15 0.00 0.00% |
Marathon |
Marathon Oil Target Price Odds to finish below 161.85
The tendency of Marathon Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to R$ 161.85 or more in 90 days |
| 170.15 | 90 days | 161.85 | about 85.23 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Marathon Oil to drop to R$ 161.85 or more in 90 days from now is about 85.23 (This Marathon Oil probability density function shows the probability of Marathon Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Marathon Oil price to stay between R$ 161.85 and its current price of R$170.15 at the end of the 90-day period is about 13.49 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Marathon Oil has a beta of 0.51. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Marathon Oil average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Marathon Oil will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Marathon Oil has an alpha of 0.126, implying that it can generate a 0.13 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Marathon Oil Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Marathon Oil
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Marathon Oil. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Marathon Oil Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Marathon Oil is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Marathon Oil's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Marathon Oil, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Marathon Oil within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.13 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.51 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 6.75 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.03 |
Marathon Oil Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Marathon Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Marathon Oil's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Marathon Oil's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 743 M |
Marathon Oil Technical Analysis
Marathon Oil's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Marathon Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Marathon Oil. In general, you should focus on analyzing Marathon Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Marathon Oil Predictive Forecast Models
Marathon Oil's time-series forecasting models is one of many Marathon Oil's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Marathon Oil's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Marathon Oil in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Marathon Oil's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Marathon Oil options trading.
Other Information on Investing in Marathon Stock
Marathon Oil financial ratios help investors to determine whether Marathon Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Marathon with respect to the benefits of owning Marathon Oil security.