Macfarlane Group (UK) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 115.5
| MACF Stock | 105.00 1.00 0.96% |
Macfarlane |
Macfarlane Group Target Price Odds to finish over 115.5
The tendency of Macfarlane Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 115.50 or more in 90 days |
| 105.00 | 90 days | 115.50 | about 10.99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Macfarlane Group to move over 115.50 or more in 90 days from now is about 10.99 (This Macfarlane Group PLC probability density function shows the probability of Macfarlane Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Macfarlane Group PLC price to stay between its current price of 105.00 and 115.50 at the end of the 90-day period is about 86.47 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Macfarlane Group has a beta of 0.14. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Macfarlane Group average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Macfarlane Group PLC will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Macfarlane Group PLC has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Macfarlane Group Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Macfarlane Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Macfarlane Group PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Macfarlane Group Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Macfarlane Group is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Macfarlane Group's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Macfarlane Group PLC, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Macfarlane Group within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.16 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.14 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.30 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.2 |
Macfarlane Group Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Macfarlane Group for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Macfarlane Group PLC can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Macfarlane Group PLC generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Macfarlane Group PLC is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 69.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 10th of October 2024 Macfarlane Group paid 0.0096 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: UK Dividend Stocks To Consider In November 2024 - Yahoo Finance |
Macfarlane Group Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Macfarlane Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Macfarlane Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Macfarlane Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 160.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 7.7 M |
Macfarlane Group Technical Analysis
Macfarlane Group's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Macfarlane Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Macfarlane Group PLC. In general, you should focus on analyzing Macfarlane Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Macfarlane Group Predictive Forecast Models
Macfarlane Group's time-series forecasting models is one of many Macfarlane Group's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Macfarlane Group's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Macfarlane Group PLC
Checking the ongoing alerts about Macfarlane Group for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Macfarlane Group PLC help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Macfarlane Group PLC generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Macfarlane Group PLC is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 69.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 10th of October 2024 Macfarlane Group paid 0.0096 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: UK Dividend Stocks To Consider In November 2024 - Yahoo Finance |
Additional Tools for Macfarlane Stock Analysis
When running Macfarlane Group's price analysis, check to measure Macfarlane Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Macfarlane Group is operating at the current time. Most of Macfarlane Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Macfarlane Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Macfarlane Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Macfarlane Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.