Matco Foods (Pakistan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 26.85
| MFL Stock | 29.32 2.85 8.86% |
Matco |
Matco Foods Target Price Odds to finish below 26.85
The tendency of Matco Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 26.85 or more in 90 days |
| 29.32 | 90 days | 26.85 | about 59.22 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Matco Foods to drop to 26.85 or more in 90 days from now is about 59.22 (This Matco Foods probability density function shows the probability of Matco Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Matco Foods price to stay between 26.85 and its current price of 29.32 at the end of the 90-day period is about 26.44 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Matco Foods has a beta of -1.03. This indicates Additionally Matco Foods has an alpha of 0.26, implying that it can generate a 0.26 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Matco Foods Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Matco Foods
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Matco Foods. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Matco Foods Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Matco Foods is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Matco Foods' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Matco Foods, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Matco Foods within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.26 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -1.03 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.96 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.01 |
Matco Foods Technical Analysis
Matco Foods' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Matco Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Matco Foods. In general, you should focus on analyzing Matco Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Matco Foods Predictive Forecast Models
Matco Foods' time-series forecasting models is one of many Matco Foods' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Matco Foods' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Matco Foods in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Matco Foods' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Matco Foods options trading.
Additional Tools for Matco Stock Analysis
When running Matco Foods' price analysis, check to measure Matco Foods' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Matco Foods is operating at the current time. Most of Matco Foods' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Matco Foods' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Matco Foods' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Matco Foods to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.