Magna International Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 41.87
| MGA Stock | USD 44.14 1.49 3.49% |
Magna |
Magna International Target Price Odds to finish below 41.87
The tendency of Magna Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 41.87 or more in 90 days |
| 44.14 | 90 days | 41.87 | about 64.22 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Magna International to drop to $ 41.87 or more in 90 days from now is about 64.22 (This Magna International probability density function shows the probability of Magna Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Magna International price to stay between $ 41.87 and its current price of $44.14 at the end of the 90-day period is about 33.52 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.36 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Magna International will likely underperform. Additionally Magna International has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Magna International Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Magna International
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Magna International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Magna International Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Magna International is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Magna International's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Magna International, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Magna International within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.0096 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.36 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.34 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.01 |
Magna International Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Magna International for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Magna International can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Over 77.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Magna Accelerates Hybrid Innovation With First Dedicated Drive System Award |
Magna International Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Magna Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Magna International's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Magna International's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 286.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.2 B |
Magna International Technical Analysis
Magna International's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Magna Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Magna International. In general, you should focus on analyzing Magna Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Magna International Predictive Forecast Models
Magna International's time-series forecasting models is one of many Magna International's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Magna International's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Magna International
Checking the ongoing alerts about Magna International for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Magna International help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Over 77.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Magna Accelerates Hybrid Innovation With First Dedicated Drive System Award |
Check out Magna International Backtesting, Magna International Valuation, Magna International Correlation, Magna International Hype Analysis, Magna International Volatility, Magna International History as well as Magna International Performance. For information on how to trade Magna Stock refer to our How to Trade Magna Stock guide.You can also try the Idea Analyzer module to analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas.
Is Automotive Parts & Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Magna International. If investors know Magna will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Magna International listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.226 | Dividend Share 1.9 | Earnings Share 3.75 | Revenue Per Share 148.635 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.04) |
The market value of Magna International is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Magna that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Magna International's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Magna International's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Magna International's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Magna International's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Magna International's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Magna International is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Magna International's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.