Murphy Usa Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 508.29
| MUSA Stock | USD 545.34 14.00 2.63% |
Murphy |
Murphy USA Target Price Odds to finish over 508.29
The tendency of Murphy Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 508.29 in 90 days |
| 545.34 | 90 days | 508.29 | about 37.23 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Murphy USA to stay above $ 508.29 in 90 days from now is about 37.23 (This Murphy USA probability density function shows the probability of Murphy Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Murphy USA price to stay between $ 508.29 and its current price of $545.34 at the end of the 90-day period is about 35.72 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Murphy USA has a beta of 0.66. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Murphy USA average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Murphy USA will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Murphy USA has an alpha of 0.0314, implying that it can generate a 0.0314 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Murphy USA Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Murphy USA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Murphy USA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Murphy USA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Murphy USA Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Murphy USA is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Murphy USA's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Murphy USA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Murphy USA within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.66 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 20.10 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.0063 |
Murphy USA Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Murphy USA for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Murphy USA can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Over 86.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from simplywall.st: Murphy USA shareholders have earned a 35 percent CAGR over the last five years |
Murphy USA Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Murphy Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Murphy USA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Murphy USA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 21.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 124.9 M |
Murphy USA Technical Analysis
Murphy USA's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Murphy Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Murphy USA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Murphy Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Murphy USA Predictive Forecast Models
Murphy USA's time-series forecasting models is one of many Murphy USA's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Murphy USA's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Murphy USA
Checking the ongoing alerts about Murphy USA for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Murphy USA help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Over 86.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from simplywall.st: Murphy USA shareholders have earned a 35 percent CAGR over the last five years |
Check out Murphy USA Backtesting, Murphy USA Valuation, Murphy USA Correlation, Murphy USA Hype Analysis, Murphy USA Volatility, Murphy USA History as well as Murphy USA Performance. For information on how to trade Murphy Stock refer to our How to Trade Murphy Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.
Is Automotive Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Murphy USA. If investors know Murphy will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Murphy USA listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.06) | Dividend Share 1.72 | Earnings Share 24.21 | Revenue Per Share 880.266 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.11) |
The market value of Murphy USA is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Murphy that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Murphy USA's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Murphy USA's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Murphy USA's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Murphy USA's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Murphy USA's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Murphy USA is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Murphy USA's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.