Murphy USA Stock Forward View
| MUSA Stock | USD 422.51 0.00 0.00% |
Murphy Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Murphy USA stock prices and determine the direction of Murphy USA's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Murphy USA's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time, The value of RSI of Murphy USA's share price is at 55. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Murphy USA, making its price go up or down. Momentum 55
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.06) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 6.4967 | EPS Estimate Current Year 23.7286 | EPS Estimate Next Year 25.6629 | Wall Street Target Price 439 |
Using Murphy USA hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Murphy USA from the perspective of Murphy USA response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Murphy USA using Murphy USA's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Murphy using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Murphy USA's stock price.
Murphy USA Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Murphy USA's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Murphy. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Murphy USA stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 409.6645 | Short Percent 0.1007 | Short Ratio 4.71 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.3 M | 50 Day MA 407.0184 |
Murphy Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Murphy USA on the next trading day is expected to be 402.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 312.61.Murphy USA Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Murphy USA's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Murphy. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Murphy can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Murphy USA. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Murphy USA's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Murphy USA.
Murphy USA Implied Volatility | 0.42 |
Murphy USA's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Murphy USA stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Murphy USA's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Murphy USA stock will not fluctuate a lot when Murphy USA's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Murphy USA on the next trading day is expected to be 402.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 312.61. Murphy USA after-hype prediction price | USD 419.13 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Murphy USA to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Murphy contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Murphy USA will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0263% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Murphy USA trading at USD 422.51, that is roughly USD 0.11 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Murphy USA's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Murphy USA options at the current volatility level of 0.42%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Murphy Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Murphy USA's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Murphy USA's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Murphy USA stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Murphy USA's open interest, investors have to compare it to Murphy USA's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Murphy USA is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Murphy. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Murphy USA Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Murphy price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Murphy using various technical indicators. When you analyze Murphy charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Murphy USA Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Murphy USA's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2011-12-31 | Previous Quarter 54.1 M | Current Value 42.8 M | Quarterly Volatility 102.4 M |
Murphy USA Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 1st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Murphy USA on the next trading day is expected to be 402.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.04, mean absolute percentage error of 40.69, and the sum of the absolute errors of 312.61.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Murphy Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Murphy USA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Murphy USA Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Murphy USA | Murphy USA Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Murphy USA Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Murphy USA's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Murphy USA's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 400.84 and 403.91, respectively. We have considered Murphy USA's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Murphy USA stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Murphy USA stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 123.6544 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 5.0422 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0125 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 312.6145 |
Predictive Modules for Murphy USA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Murphy USA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Murphy USA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Murphy USA After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Murphy USA at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Murphy USA or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Murphy USA, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Murphy USA Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Murphy USA's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Murphy USA's historical news coverage. Murphy USA's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 417.60 and 420.66, respectively. We have considered Murphy USA's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Murphy USA is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Murphy USA is based on 3 months time horizon.
Murphy USA Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Murphy USA is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Murphy USA backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Murphy USA, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.24 | 1.53 | 3.42 | 0.45 | 11 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
422.51 | 419.13 | 0.00 |
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Murphy USA Hype Timeline
Murphy USA is now traded for 422.51. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 3.42, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.45. Murphy is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 10.74%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.24%. %. The volatility of related hype on Murphy USA is about 81.6%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 422.96. About 89.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.51. Murphy USA recorded earning per share (EPS) of 23.6. The entity last dividend was issued on the 10th of November 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Murphy USA to cross-verify your projections.Murphy USA Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Murphy USA's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Murphy USA's future price movements. Getting to know how Murphy USA's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Murphy USA may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MNSO | Miniso Group Holding | 0.06 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 3.27 | (3.58) | 9.84 | |
| MHK | Mohawk Industries | 8.01 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 4.46 | (3.27) | 10.72 | |
| VIPS | Vipshop Holdings Limited | (0.43) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.00 | (3.66) | 13.81 | |
| AN | AutoNation | (0.28) | 24 per month | 1.53 | 0 | 3.06 | (2.20) | 8.76 | |
| BIRK | Birkenstock Holding plc | 1.05 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 4.30 | (3.77) | 16.78 | |
| CHDN | Churchill Downs Incorporated | (3.41) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.22 | (2.90) | 8.26 | |
| ETSY | Etsy Inc | 14.24 | 17 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 3.69 | (5.03) | 15.04 | |
| ALSN | Allison Transmission Holdings | 1.78 | 31 per month | 0.82 | 0.26 | 3.31 | (1.54) | 6.81 | |
| LEVI | Levi Strauss Co | 0.01 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.64 | (3.67) | 8.59 | |
| BBWI | Bath Body Works | (2.28) | 13 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 4.78 | (4.50) | 27.08 |
Other Forecasting Options for Murphy USA
For every potential investor in Murphy, whether a beginner or expert, Murphy USA's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Murphy Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Murphy. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Murphy USA's price trends.Murphy USA Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Murphy USA stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Murphy USA could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Murphy USA by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Murphy USA Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Murphy USA stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Murphy USA shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Murphy USA stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Murphy USA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 14027.73 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 416.4 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 418.44 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 1.0E-4 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 6.11 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 55.29 |
Murphy USA Risk Indicators
The analysis of Murphy USA's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Murphy USA's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting murphy stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.33 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.77 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.85 | |||
| Variance | 3.41 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.78 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.14 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.42) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Murphy USA
The number of cover stories for Murphy USA depends on current market conditions and Murphy USA's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Murphy USA is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Murphy USA's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Murphy USA Short Properties
Murphy USA's future price predictability will typically decrease when Murphy USA's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Murphy USA often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Murphy USA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Murphy USA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 20.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 47 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Murphy USA to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Murphy Stock refer to our How to Trade Murphy Stock guide.You can also try the Sectors module to list of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities.
Is Automotive Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Murphy USA. Expected growth trajectory for Murphy significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Murphy USA assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.06) | Dividend Share 2 | Earnings Share 23.6 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.03) |
Investors evaluate Murphy USA using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Murphy USA's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Murphy USA's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Murphy USA's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Murphy USA represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Conversely, Murphy USA's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.