Mueller Water Products Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 25.68
| MWA Stock | USD 24.97 0.15 0.60% |
Mueller |
Mueller Water Target Price Odds to finish over 25.68
The tendency of Mueller Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 25.68 or more in 90 days |
| 24.97 | 90 days | 25.68 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Mueller Water to move over $ 25.68 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Mueller Water Products probability density function shows the probability of Mueller Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Mueller Water Products price to stay between its current price of $ 24.97 and $ 25.68 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.96 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.48 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Mueller Water will likely underperform. Additionally Mueller Water Products has an alpha of 0.1604, implying that it can generate a 0.16 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Mueller Water Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Mueller Water
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mueller Water Products. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mueller Water's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Mueller Water Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Mueller Water is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Mueller Water's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Mueller Water Products, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Mueller Water within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.16 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.48 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.61 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.11 |
Mueller Water Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Mueller Water for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Mueller Water Products can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Mueller Water is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Over 95.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 20th of November 2024 Mueller Water paid $ 0.067 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from benzinga.com: Options Exercise LYDIA THOMAS At Mueller Water Products Realizes 163K |
Mueller Water Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Mueller Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Mueller Water's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Mueller Water's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 156.9 M |
Mueller Water Technical Analysis
Mueller Water's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Mueller Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Mueller Water Products. In general, you should focus on analyzing Mueller Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Mueller Water Predictive Forecast Models
Mueller Water's time-series forecasting models is one of many Mueller Water's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Mueller Water's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Mueller Water Products
Checking the ongoing alerts about Mueller Water for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Mueller Water Products help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Mueller Water is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Over 95.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 20th of November 2024 Mueller Water paid $ 0.067 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from benzinga.com: Options Exercise LYDIA THOMAS At Mueller Water Products Realizes 163K |
Check out Mueller Water Backtesting, Mueller Water Valuation, Mueller Water Correlation, Mueller Water Hype Analysis, Mueller Water Volatility, Mueller Water History as well as Mueller Water Performance. You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
Is Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Mueller Water. If investors know Mueller will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Mueller Water listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.45) | Dividend Share 0.256 | Earnings Share 0.74 | Revenue Per Share 8.433 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.155 |
The market value of Mueller Water Products is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Mueller that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Mueller Water's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Mueller Water's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Mueller Water's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Mueller Water's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Mueller Water's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Mueller Water is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Mueller Water's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.